Predicting the long run success of a younger participant isn’t any simple feat. Hundreds of thousands of things come into play between a prospect signing with a Main League group and their eventual MLB debut. Accidents and trades have an enormous influence on how a participant’s profession pans out. For some, they reside as much as the hype and turn out to be franchise gamers for the group that confirmed religion in them. Others, settle into smaller roles and contribute off of the bench. Some fall out of baseball utterly.
Nonetheless, in uncommon instances, gamers whose careers had stagnated rebound and carry out above expectations. Jurickson Profar completed within the top-25 amongst all certified Main Leaguers with a 4.3 WAR after 9 MLB seasons with sub 2.5 seasons (together with a -1.6 in 2023). Taylor Ward spent 4 seasons struggling to say himself earlier than asserting himself as a big-leaguer with a 136 wRC+ in 2022. Simply because a participant’s first few seasons don’t reside as much as the hype doesn’t imply they can’t develop right into a useful contributor.
Whereas the early outcomes for these three gamers haven’t matched the lofty expectations positioned on every of them, they discover themselves in good positions to rebound in 2025. None of those gamers is a certain factor, and so they all have points that should be addressed earlier than they will turn out to be stars. Nonetheless, all of them have the potential to lastly take the following step and turn out to be useful fantasy belongings subsequent season. Not at all are these the one three gamers who might fall into this class, however they’re the three I’m most assured in.
Listed here are three former prospects that fantasy managers ought to purpose to amass whereas their worth is low.
Out of the three prospects profiled on this article, Hayes is by far the most secure choice of the three. The Pirates signed him to an eight-year, $70 million extension firstly of the 2022 season. The 2 seasons that adopted have been sensible for the previous #9 prospect in baseball. Hayes put collectively back-to-back 3+ WAR seasons, offering worth primarily along with his protection but in addition contributing a good quantity on offense as nicely.
The 2023 season was an ideal indication of the participant that Hayes grew to become. He hit .271 with a .762 OPS and mashed 15 house runs. Based on wRC+, he was precisely on the league common (100) by way of run creation, however his 21 DRS and 17 OAA made him a key piece of the Pirates’ protection, warranting a spot within the lineup for 124 video games.
As soon as hailed as a potential franchise cornerstone, Hayes regressed mightily in 2024. Almost each offensive metric took a nosedive.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 2023/2024 Regression
Yikes. These numbers received’t fill dynasty managers with confidence in his future efficiency, and so they shouldn’t. Nonetheless, it is very important be aware that Hayes has been coping with a again harm for the previous three seasons, and it appeared to lastly meet up with him final season. MLB.com reported that Hayes’ again points have been plaguing his efficiency since 2022. They affected his 2023 season as nicely, as he missed time with two stints on the harm record for back-injury-related causes.
It’s inconceivable to invest on a participant’s future well being, and the previous doesn’t paint an encouraging image relating to his future. That mentioned, the identical MLB.com article states that Hayes is endeavor a brand new rehab program in the course of the offseason. As soon as once more, it’s inconceivable to say for certain, but when this program is extra profitable at mitigating a few of the again points, then Hayes might take a step ahead in 2025.
The 27-year-old’s Course of+ chart reveals that he made important enhancements in his method on the plate after July 1st. His uncooked numbers from that date onward should not fairly. A 42 wRC+ and two extra-base hits in 150 plate appearances should not numbers indicative of an influence participant. Nonetheless, there might have been some luck concerned. Hayes’ .240 BABIP throughout that interval would have ranked third-worst in Main League Baseball amongst certified batters. Over the course of the entire season, his hard-hit% (42.9%) places him comfortably within the prime half amongst MLB hitters, and he squared the ball up 31.3% of the time he swung (twenty seventh in MLB).
A variety of issues must go proper for Ke’Bryan Hayes to be a consider fantasy baseball subsequent season. He should return to his 2023 kind, and even excel previous it, for managers to belief him once more (I’d know, I drafted him final season). Nonetheless, the numbers point out that there’s room for progress in Hayes’ recreation, and he is likely to be in line for a bounce-back season.
He’s beneath contract with the Pirates till 2029, so except they discover a option to unload the final 4 years of his deal, he’ll stay in Pittsburgh. There isn’t a ton to fret about by way of prospects that would take over for Hayes, so his place ought to be protected to open the season, giving him an opportunity to re-establish himself. The third baseman’s worth has by no means been decrease, so now’s the time to strike when you want an affordable improve at third base. If Hayes can discover a option to battle by his again accidents and discover a few of his 2023 magic, he could possibly be a useful choice for fantasy managers.
The primary total decide within the 2016 Draft was as soon as hailed as baseball’s subsequent nice centerfielder. Moniak hit .476 in 29 highschool video games throughout his senior season earlier than signing with the Philadelphia Phillies. MLB.com in contrast him to Christian Yelich in the course of the pre-draft course of, citing his 60-grade fielding and 55-grade energy as key components of his recreation.
He made his MLB debut within the COVID-shortened 2020 season with the Phillies, hitting .214 in eight video games. In elements of 5 Main League seasons with the Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels, Moniak is hitting .230 with an OBP of simply .272. In 275 profession video games, he has collected a profession WAR of 1.0. Moniak obtained common taking part in time for the primary time in his profession in 2024, hitting 14 house runs and stealing eight bases.
Going into 2025, Moniak is in line to obtain common taking part in time for the second straight season. The Angels proceed to seek for a supporting forged for one of many sport’s largest stars, Mike Trout. Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, and Nolan Schanuel have all grown into useful belongings within the lineup, however the Halos want extra offensive firepower in the event that they purpose to compete within the AL West.
Moniak confirmed flashes of having the ability to step into that position. In August, he was the most effective hitters on the planet. Moniak had a 1.116 OPS with six house runs in 64 plate appearances throughout that month. Nonetheless, on the opposite finish of the spectrum, Moniak can fall into chilly stretches that restrict his worth. After his sensible August efficiency, he hit simply .123 in September.
The primary concern plaguing Moniak that limits his potential going ahead is his plate self-discipline. He’s within the tenth percentile amongst Main League hitters in each chase charge and stroll charge. He swings the bat very laborious, however not often makes laborious contact, which has led to a 2024 BABIP nicely under .300. It’s not inconceivable for plate self-discipline to enhance over the span of a participant’s profession, and all of those numbers are enhancements on his ’23 efficiency. That mentioned, putting out in over 25% of your at-bats with a whiff charge over 30% doesn’t normally end in a ton of success on the plate.
He’s the epitome of a “purchase very-low” participant. On paper, Moniak brings little or no to the desk by way of fantasy influence. The rationale he finds himself on this record is the upside his bat carries and the prolonged run within the Majors he’ll doubtless get on a foul Angels roster. Moniak’s bat velocity (73.1) places him amongst established hitters like Anthony Santander (44 HRs) and Seiya Suzuki (136 wRC+). If he’s in a position to make one other stride towards limiting his strikeout and call points, he might rework right into a useful asset, particularly in deeper leagues.
With greater contact charges, come extra hits, and with extra hits comes the opportunity of extra stolen bases. Moniak, who went 8/12 on steals in ’24, is quicker (28.3 mph) than Nico Hoerner, Cedric Mullins, and Jazz Chisholm, who all eclipsed the 30 stolen-base mark final season. If he’s in a position to enhance his batting common and on-base charge in 2025, he could possibly be a participant to look at on the basepaths.
Moniak’s mixture of energy and velocity has been restricted by his gentle contact and whiff points thus far in his Main League profession. If he is ready to proceed bettering in these areas, he might get away and turn out to be a useful fantasy asset in 2025.
In my final article discussing AJ Blubaugh’s dynasty outlook, I wrote about how the Astros have been in a transitional interval as their “previous guard” of arms are beginning to depart the rotation one after the other. Justin Verlander isn’t the pitcher he was 5 years in the past, and Yusei Kikuchi will hit the open market this offseason. The group’s ace going into 2025, Framber Valdez, will hit the open market after this season and shall be due for an enormous increase that Houston might deem to be too costly.
Whitley has been thought-about one of many group’s crown jewels since being drafted in 2016. He was among the many Astros’ top-five prospects from 2017-2022, and was the group’s #1 prospect for 4 of these seasons. It’s been a rollercoaster of a profession thus far for Whitley. He was suspended for 50 video games in 2018 for a violation of MLB’s drug prevention and therapy coverage. He returned in 2019 with various ranges of success, ending with a 7.99 ERA over 4 ranges. COVID then took away the 2020 season, and Tommy John surgical procedure ended his 2021 season earlier than it might start. He returned for 13 video games the following season, however an ERA of 6.53 did little to encourage confidence in his skill. Whitley struggled to remain wholesome in 2023, battling a lat pressure and finger irritation. He lastly returned to the mound in 2024, pitching to a 2.12 ERA in 33 appearances at AAA.
You is likely to be saying “Wow! an ERA round two in 33 video games? That sounds actually good! Why is he valued so low?” Nicely, it’s as a result of he solely began a type of video games, and was not often used after the seventh inning. With Josh Hader beneath contract, the probabilities he turns into the following nearer in Houston are (to place it properly) slim to none. The rationale I’m suggesting Whitley as a buy-low choice for fantasy baseball is predicated on the (albeit) slim probability he returns to the beginning rotation dialog in 2025.
He has the uncooked instruments to make the conversion. The primary two pitches of this video show how filthy his repertoire could possibly be.
That curveball is simply plain filthy, and it’s by far Whitley’s finest pitch. At 5.34, it’s his finest pitch by a large margin by way of PLV, and Fangraphs provides it a 135 stuff+ ranking. Whereas the sinker wants some work (4.99 PLV, 8% whiff), the rate ought to play on the MLB stage. He might have a secret weapon in his arsenal too. Whitley solely used his cutter 10% of the time at AAA final season, regardless of the pitch having a 42% strike charge. He locates the cut-fastball primarily within the zone on his glove aspect, and the motion profile differentiates it from his sinker-curveball mixture. If he’s in a position to combine that pitch into his repertoire extra going ahead, that provides him three stable choices to work with.
It’s no secret that Whitley has an electrical arm able to producing loads of strikeouts (412 in 301 minor-league innings). Nonetheless, a 4.66 BB/9 throughout his time within the minor leagues and a WHIP above 1.3 point out that he has hassle maintaining runners off the basepaths. That concern was a key in Houston’s determination to transition Whitley into the bullpen. So as to reclaim his worth, he wants to deal with the problems with walks, which ought to hold him in video games for longer.
I wish to reiterate, that these gamers ought to be thought-about as “purchase extraordinarily low” in case your league permits you the flexibleness to take flyers on guys like Whitley. There are three outcomes that I can foresee taking place for Whitley in 2025: 1. He stays a one-inning arm in the midst of the Astros bullpen. 2. The changes mentioned are made, however there simply isn’t room for him within the rotation, subsequently he turns into a useful, multi-inning arm (ideally in a Brant Hurter-esque position). And three. He lastly cracks the Houston rotation and repays the religion the group has had in him for 9 years. If the 27-year-old finds a approach again into the beginning rotation, he has breakout potential and will evolve right into a reputable choice within the again finish of fantasy rotations.
