3B Rank Diagnostics: The Misses

Going again in time might be tough. You hop in your DeLorean full of pleasure and hop out shocked to see the way you appeared only a few months in the past. What am I sporting? Did I actually suppose that appeared okay? Or, in a extra related use of time journey judgment, did I actually suppose Brett Baty would win the third-base job over Mark Vientos?! On this hypothetical return to the previous, there I sit, pushing the buttons of my laptop computer late at night time, typing out the next portion of my preseason third base ranks:

Both Brett Baty or Mark Vientos needed to make this record and I selected Baty. They appear like the identical participant from a statistical standpoint and each must make enhancements to be fantasy-relevant. However, they’re younger and there’s definitely room to develop. Pay shut consideration to the 3B scenario in NY throughout spring coaching. There’s additionally a world through which they act as a platoon.

It’s on model that I didn’t scream any participant’s identify to the heavens and tweet out a firestorm of assured fantasy baseball recommendation. This stuff are troublesome to foretell. However, who noticed Vientos coming? Who figured he’d catch everybody’s consideration with a record-breaking playoff efficiency within the 2024 NLDS?

Baty did win the job out of spring coaching and was the Mets’ on a regular basis third baseman by the primary half of Might, however as soon as Vientos was referred to as up and shared the place with Baty, he set himself aside. Between the fifteenth and the thirtieth of Might, Baty struggled, slashing .200/.355/.360 to Vientos’ .310/.370/.548. The remaining is precise historical past. Not solely did he return optimistic worth as a 3rd baseman in normal fantasy codecs, however in line with our Public sale Calculator, he ranked fifteenth behind Jake Burger and forward of Matt Vierling. For all you sticklers on the market, I’m utilizing the identical calculator settings I utilized in my preseason rating system.

Vientos didn’t simply shock me, otherwise you, or sure, even your Mets superfan cousin. He shocked each single projection system we host right here on FanGraphs:

Simply because it is smart to eat dessert earlier than dinner, I wrote concerning the gamers I ranked inside a good margin of error earlier than I wrote concerning the misses. This evaluation is someplace in between. Listed below are the six gamers that didn’t crack my prime 41 unique gamers, however completed the season inside them:

Matt Vierling’s 567 plate appearances helped him bulk his option to 16 dwelling runs this season, the best mark for each stats in his profession. He was the proper fantasy utility man for filling your lineup and that defensive versatility stored him within the lineup towards righties, although he truly put up significantly better energy numbers towards them:

vs.L: .275/.329/.391
vs.R: .250/.306/.434

Vierling’s public sale calculator Z-Scores, you solely see one optimistic worth: the variety of runs he scored this season. He batted within the leadoff spot 50 totally different instances in 2024. Vierling is an ideal instance of how place within the lineup provides worth.

Josh Smith was the topic of a number of FanGraph posts this season. The primary got here in June and centered on Smith’s change in strategy on the plate and a brand new affinity for line-drive hitting whereas elevating questions concerning the sustainability of a few of his peripheral metrics. The second got here a lot later within the 12 months and centered extra on Smith’s…leg muscle tissue. Regardless, it was written at a time when Smith did see a regression in his first-half efficiency:

1st half: .293/.392/.469
2nd half: .215/.265/.300

…and it was drastic. Between halves, his Ok% elevated, his BB% decreased, his BABIP tanked and although it was identified by Matt Martell that opposing pitchers have been grooving fastballs to Smith on the common, his Zone% truly elevated barely. That doesn’t imply pitchers approached him in the identical method. A fast and soiled option to analyze this may be present in a pitch-value comparability between halves:

This will warrant additional evaluation, but it surely’s clear that fastballs challenged Smith within the second half of the 12 months after posting nice numbers towards them within the first.

All of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jose Miranda, and Geraldo Perdomo made the end-of-season rating record however nonetheless returned adverse values. Kiner-Falefa and Miranda each exceeded their undertaking plate appearances, which led to quite a lot of bulk accumulation of stats. However Miranda is the stand-out participant on this group with a remaining slash line of .284/.322/.441. This season, Miranda discovered a pleasant stability between energy and common whereas posting a career-low 15.4% Ok% and career-high 90% Z-Contact%. In years previous he struggled to provide towards fastballs, however in 2024 he figured one thing out, posting a 6.7 pVal (Statcast) on four-seamers. On the age of 26, Miranda will probably be a participant to regulate shifting ahead.

Like that NFT you got throughout the tightest portion of the pandemic lockdown, preseason rankings lose worth rapidly. However, going again in time and re-evaluating the method is necessary. Did Josh Smith do sufficient to search out himself within the prime 40-something subsequent 12 months? Most likely not. Then once more, DeLorean or none, the longer term is unsure.