Injuries to Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill Have Put the Mets Rotation on the Spot

Every week in the past, as Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas continued their rehab assignments, reporters and followers puzzled how the 2 hurlers — each of whom suffered accidents earlier than the calendar flipped to March — would match right into a rotation that has been one of many majors’ finest to this point. “Often it performs itself out,” responded Mets supervisor Carlos Mendoza when requested about it. “We nonetheless are not less than two weeks away from making these selections and I’m hoping that by the point we get there it’s going to be a tough choice. Meaning everybody’s wholesome. Meaning everyone continues to throw the ball properly and now we have some good issues.”

Whereas the Mets nonetheless share the NL’s finest document (45-28) due to the work of that rotation — which has been unusually sturdy because the begin of the common season — their choice concerning that pair has develop into extra difficult. In fast succession, each Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill have landed on the injured checklist, the previous with a hamstring pressure and the latter with an elbow sprain. Every is prone to miss not less than a month, and to date, neither Manaea nor Montas has proven he’s prepared.

On Thursday at Citi Area, Senga completely carved up the Nationals, holding them to at least one hit — a first-inning single by James Wooden — and one stroll whereas placing out 5. With one out within the sixth, he ran to cowl first base after inducing CJ Abrams to hit a pointy grounder to Pete Alonso, whose throw to the pitcher was excessive. Senga leapt within the air to catch the ball, then prolonged his proper leg far sufficient for his toe to the touch the nook of the bag in time to beat Abrams. It was a formidable, acrobatic play, however the pitcher instantly grabbed his proper hamstring upon touchdown, then tumbled to the bottom.

The Mets positioned Senga on the 15-day injured checklist on Friday afternoon and despatched him for an MRI, which yielded comparatively excellent news, in that the 32-year-old righty suffered solely a Grade 1 pressure. The Mets have shut him down for 2 weeks, after which medical doctors will reevaluate him. If he’s totally healed, he’ll nonetheless should undergo a throwing development and a rehab stint earlier than he can return to the rotation.

“It relies on the participant,” mentioned Mendoza on Friday. “It’s two weeks of little or no bodily exercise. Hopefully we preserve the arm going, however he’s bought to be symptom-free earlier than we begin ramping him up. So may very well be 4, 5, six [weeks]. Who is aware of? However once more, it’s a low grade, which is nice information.”

That is Senga’s second season in a row touchdown on the IL. Final yr, he strained his shoulder capsule throughout spring coaching, then returned to make one begin on July 26, throughout which he strained his left calf. He didn’t return to the Mets till the playoffs, when he made two begins and one aid look totaling 5 innings. He was decidedly rusty, strolling seven, placing out 4, and permitting seven runs.

Senga has rebounded from that misplaced season in spectacular style, although he hasn’t been fairly as dominant as his NL-best 1.47 ERA suggests. His 10.6% stroll fee is the third highest within the league amongst certified starters — a distinction Senga will shed as soon as the Mets play their subsequent sport — whereas his 23.9% strikeout fee is middle-of-the-pack, 5.2 proportion factors decrease than his fee in 2023, his first season stateside. Solely his homer fee (0.49 per 9, third within the NL) is outstanding. Amongst starters in each leagues, he’s outperformed his FIP by the second-largest margin:

So how has Senga performed it? Kiri Oler not too long ago explored Senga’s reliance upon seam-shifted wake to deceive and shock hitters along with his broad assortment of pitches; he throws six of them not less than 5% of the time, along with his forkball and slider the standouts. His mixing and matching has helped him stay efficient when dealing with batters a second and third time in a sport; his .220 wOBA allowed within the latter scenario is eighth lowest within the majors. I’ll add that his ERA-FIP differential owes quite a bit to sequencing and his effectiveness with runners on base. His 17% double play fee is ninth amongst qualifiers:

In the meantime, Senga’s .197 wOBA allowed with runners in scoring place (.103/.224/.172) is the majors’ third-lowest mark amongst starters; teammate Clay Holmes (.172 wOBA) has the bottom.

As for Megill, the 29-year-old righty skilled what he described as “some pulling” in his elbow throughout Saturday’s begin in opposition to the Rays, primarily whereas throwing breaking pitches, and he significantly struggled to manage his slider. Following an MRI, he’s been recognized with an elbow sprain, and whereas the Mets haven’t revealed which ligament was broken, it’s the ulnar collateral ligament in line with Beneath the Knife’s Will Carroll: “What now we have right here, per sources, is a really small sprain and one the workforce thinks they will management and monitor. He’s probably already been hit with some biologics, as is customary with accidents like this, and after about 10 days of relaxation and remedy, he can start a fast ramp.” Mendoza advised reporters the best-case situation for Megill’s return is 4 to 5 weeks; the worst case, given the involvement of the UCL, is Tommy John surgical procedure.

It’s been an uneven season for Megill, whose 29.2% strikeout fee and three.95 ERA are each the best among the many Mets’ common starters. He posted a 1.03 ERA over his first 5 begins totaling 24 2/3 innings — together with the workforce’s Opening Day sport in opposition to the Astros — however he has been lit for a 5.56 ERA over his final 9 turns, totaling 43 2/3 innings. Despite the fact that he’s walked 10.8% of hitters, he has the best strikeout-walk differential of any Mets starter (18.4%), and his 3.36 FIP trails solely Senga and Peterson (3.07, together with a 2.60 ERA). As a result of he tends to pitch into deep counts, Megill has been stored on a brief leash. He’s lasted not less than six innings simply twice, has only one high quality begin, and has been pulled from 5 out of his 14 begins earlier than finishing 5 innings, together with a 4 2/3-inning, 10-strikeout effort on Could 21 in opposition to the Pink Sox. He’s considered one of two Mets to make not less than 10 begins whereas averaging lower than 5 innings per flip, together with Griffin Canning:

Regardless of that quick work, Megill does a adequate job lacking bats and barrels to be helpful in the back of the rotation.

As a unit, the Mets rotation owns the bottom ERA (2.95) and residential run fee (0.74 per 9) within the majors, in addition to the NL’s third-lowest FIP (3.55), a formidable exhibiting given the workforce ranked nineteenth in our preseason Positional Energy Rankings as soon as Manaea and Montas went down, the previous with an indirect pressure and the latter with a high-grade lat pressure. The workforce is considered one of simply 4 to have 5 starters every make not less than 13 begins, together with the Angels, Cardinals, and Rays. Peterson, whom Michael Baumann not too long ago wrote about, hasn’t allowed greater than three earned runs in any of his 14 begins. He leads the workforce in innings (86 2/3), high quality begins (9), and WAR (2.0). After backing final Wednesday’s shutout of the Nationals with a seven-inning, three-run begin in opposition to the Braves on Tuesday evening, his 2.60 ERA is fourth within the NL. Holmes, who hadn’t began a significant league sport since 2018 earlier than signing a three-year, $38 million deal this previous winter, has pitched to a 2.87 ERA (eleventh within the league) and three.93 FIP. Canning, a former first-round choose who not often lived as much as expectations with the Angels, has to date put up career-best numbers in each ERA (3.80) and FIP (4.19) regardless of his restricted workload.

As for Manaea and Montas, each have scuffled throughout their rehab assignments. The 33-year-old Manaea, who signed a three-year, $75 million take care of the Mets after delivering a 3.47 ERA and three.83 FIP in 181 2/3 innings, has made three begins to date, all for Excessive-A Brooklyn. He’s constructed up from 36 pitches to 46 to 56, however he’s surrendered seven earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Nonetheless, he’s heading to Triple-A Syracuse to proceed his rehab work with a begin on Friday. The mathematics of build up pitch counts recommend he most likely wants not less than a pair extra turns earlier than the Mets name upon him.

The 32-year-old Montas, who signed a two-year, $34 million take care of the Mets after posting a 4.84 ERA and 4.71 FIP in 150 2/3 innings for the Reds and Brewers, has been knocked round to an excellent higher diploma. In two begins for Brooklyn and three for Syracuse totaling 13 2/3 innings, he’s bought a 13.17 ERA and has allowed seven homers whereas strolling 9 and placing out 10. His three Triple-A begins have been significantly unhealthy. He gave up 4 homers (and 5 runs) in 4 innings on June 3, then after throwing an ugly 76 pitches in 3 2/3 innings on June 8, he lasted solely 53 pitches on June 13 whereas being peppered for seven hits and eight runs and recording simply 5 outs.

As Mendoza mentioned on Tuesday, Montas has been falling behind hitters and “not shifting properly mechanically on the mound as he’s going by means of the supply.” His mechanics reportedly regarded higher in his between-starts bullpen session at Citi Area, however he’s operating out of time. He’ll begin for Syracuse on Wednesday however hit the 30-day mark — the maximum-length rehab task for a pitcher until he’s getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure or pulled again attributable to an extra damage or setback — on June 22, earlier than his subsequent flip comes round. The Mets might squeeze in an look on quick relaxation earlier than including him to the 26-man roster, which could be good preparation in the event that they plan to ship him to the bullpen.

Till Montas and Manaea are prepared, the workforce does produce other choices. Paul Blackburn has been slotted into the rotation rather than Senga and can begin in opposition to the Braves on Wednesday. The 31-year-old righty was restricted to 14 begins final yr with the A’s and Mets attributable to a stress response in his proper foot, a hand contusion and, in the course of the postseason, a spinal fluid leak; when he was obtainable, he posted a 4.66 ERA and 4.63 FIP in 75 1/3 innings. The damage bug bit him once more throughout spring coaching, and he missed the primary two months of this season attributable to irritation in his proper knee. He threw 5 scoreless innings in his season debut in opposition to the Dodgers on June 2 and has since made two aid appearances, together with a four-inning save in a June 8 blowout in opposition to the Rockies.

Since neither Manaea nor Montas is prone to be in preventing form earlier than Megill’s slot comes up on Friday in opposition to the Phillies, the workforce will want a spot starter, with the selection prone to come down to 2 pitchers at Syracuse who’re on the 40-man roster, Justin Hagenman and Blade Tidwell (sure, Blade). Hagenman, a 28-year-old righty our of Penn State, threw 3 1/3 innings in his main league debut on April 16, a bulk look following opener Huascar Brazobán. Although his total 6.15 ERA and 5.15 FIP at Syracuse are ugly, he’s posted a 3.18 ERA with 22 strikeouts and simply two walks in 17 innings since getting back from a finger damage in mid-Could. Tidwell, a 24-year-old righty, was the workforce’s second-round choose in 2022 out of the College of Tennessee and grades out as a 45-FV prospect. He was cuffed for six runs and 9 hits in 3 2/3 innings in his debut on Could 4 and at Syracuse has pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 4.28 FIP.

A technique or one other, Mendoza and the entrance workplace will type out who takes the ball for the Mets. However what appeared like a pleasant downside to have only a week in the past now verges on a cautionary story. As ever, you possibly can’t have an excessive amount of pitching.