It’s been a battle for the Astros to even preserve their heads above water this yr because of the substantial losses they suffered over the offseason and numerous lackluster in-season performances. Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker are all taking part in elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez is harm. Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, and new addition Christian Walker have all been disappointing up to now. And the rotation has nearly no certainty behind Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. All of that makes staying simply 2.5 video games again within the AL West a powerful feat in its personal proper, even when the times of the dynasty that introduced residence two World Collection championships seem like over.
The event of shortstop Jeremy Pena is a significant purpose why they’re nonetheless within the hunt for the playoffs in any respect at this level. A 3rd-rounder within the 2018 draft who debuted in 2022 with an excellent season that earned him a Gold Glove award, Pena has all the time been a helpful participant because of his glorious work at shortstop however has by no means been greater than a league common performer on the plate. Coming into 2025, the 27-year-old had slashed .261/.307/.399 with a wRC+ of precisely 100 throughout his MLB profession.
Because the Cubs demonstrated once they provided Dansby Swanson $177MM to turn out to be their beginning shortstop, a league common bat with a superb glove at shortstop is already extremely helpful. Pena has seemingly taken his sport to a different degree up to now this yr, nonetheless. He’s hitting a superb .298/.362/.447 with six homers, six steals, and a wRC+ of 132 this season. These numbers aren’t precisely showing on the high of any leaderboards this early within the season, when comparatively small pattern sizes enable baseball’s most fearsome hitters to flirt with a .400 batting common or a 60-homer season nearly yearly. However may Pena’s step ahead be extra sustainable than the everyday sizzling begin to a season?
There’s loads of purpose to imagine that’s the case. One of the optimistic modifications in Pena’s profile is his considerably improved plate self-discipline. After hanging out at a 20.4% clip and posting the third-lowest stroll fee within the majors amongst hitters with at the least 1500 plate appearances over the previous three years, Pena is now one in all simply 19 certified hitters with a strikeout fee underneath 14% this yr (13.7%). He’s even strolling a bit extra often, with a 6.2% fee that grades out as merely beneath common slightly than within the dialog for lowest within the league. These enhancements in plate self-discipline seem like largely sustainable. Pena is swinging much less usually than ever (49.0%), and whereas that’s include a lower in swing fee contained in the strike zone it’s additionally allowed him to chop down his swinging strike fee by almost three factors relative to his profession norms.
Whereas Pena’s elevated passivity within the strike zone could possibly be a trigger for concern down the road, for now it appears as if swinging much less usually is doing wonders for his plate self-discipline. That willingness to take strikes contained in the zone has been offset up to now by elevated energy manufacturing. Pena’s .149 ISO so far within the season doesn’t fairly match his rookie marketing campaign, when he launched 22 homers and 20 doubles, but it surely’s nonetheless ten factors above his profession norms and leaves room for him to flirt with a second 20-homer season after combining for simply 25 lengthy balls in 2023 and ’24. If this newfound energy proves to be sustainable, that might assist Pena keep away from opposing pitchers difficult him within the zone extra usually to use the truth that he’s begun to swing much less usually.
The underlying metrics on Pena’s energy output are combined, nonetheless. He’s hitting the ball arduous extra usually than ever earlier than with a 40.1% hard-hit fee that may be the perfect of his profession, however his 6.8% barrel fee will not be considerably totally different from his profession 6.2% mark, his common exit velocity is nearly unchanged, and his max exit velocity is definitely decrease than ever earlier than. His bat pace has truly come down barely as effectively. It’s not all dangerous information, nonetheless: along with his aforementioned hard-hit fee enhancements, Pena is squaring the ball up extra usually than ever earlier than (28.9%). In all, Pena’s xwOBA (.349) is kind of consistent with his wOBA of .355, which means that he’s kind of earned his manufacturing so far.
How do MLBTR readers really feel about Pena’s sturdy begin to the season? Is it a sustainable step ahead for the younger hitter, or will he revert again to common with time? Have your say within the ballot beneath:
