Welcome To the Bigs, Matt Shaw

Three nights earlier than the primary recreation of the 2025 MLB season in Tokyo, the Cubs performed the Angels in a Spring Breakout recreation in Arizona. These in attendance acquired to see Angels high pitching prospect Caden Dana battle to make it out of the primary inning, Cubs outfield hopeful Kevin Alcántara slug a house run, and 21-year-old catcher Moises Ballesteros leg out a double. Matt Shaw was not there.

Fantasy managers who drafted Shaw have been ecstatic to seek out out he had made the journey with the massive league membership and could be within the beginning lineup for recreation one of many Tokyo Sequence. On Tuesday, March 18th, Matt Shaw made his massive league debut and needed to instantly face one of many recreation’s most outstanding pitchers in his personal nation. The younger Cubs prospect noticed 10 pitches from Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that first recreation, two at-bats ending in a strikeout and a groundout.

As soon as the bullpen took over, Shaw didn’t essentially see a degradation of pitch high quality. He went from an elite beginning pitcher in Yamamoto to a very good aid pitcher in Ben Casparius. The Dodger righty greeted him with 97 MPH on the high of the zone. Shaw put it in play, a groundout to Tommy Edman. He then capped off his debut with a strikeout on three pitches from the Dodgers’ new beast nearer, Tanner Scott. Welcome to the bigs. Tomorrow can be higher.

On the earliest iteration of my Third Base 2025 Fantasy Rankings Shaw didn’t make the record. It was shortly identified:

This was earlier than Isaac Paredes had been traded to the Houston Astros and Alex Bregman signed with the Purple Sox. Shaw’s enjoying time potential was unclear. However as soon as these strikes occurred, Shaw appeared like he is perhaps the one choice to play the place for the Cubs and he was introduced into my rankings:

Matt Shaw now joins…as a chance for the third base place out of Spring Coaching. I’ve principally introduced him into the ranks as a result of RosterResource has him lined up because the Cubs’ third baseman in 2025, now that Paredes is in Houston. Shaw has actual pedigree and his part of the newest Cubs prospect evaluation makes him a really intriguing participant going into 2025. It’s very attainable he may soar up these ranks within the Spring.

RosterResource’s enjoying time projection was examined early and acquired it proper. Shaw was again within the lineup for recreation two of the Tokyo Sequence on March nineteenth, and acquired his first massive league hit:

Shaw would have most popular a cleaner ball in play, however successful is successful. Previous to his debut, I used to be preaching persistence and wasn’t pushing the younger third baseman up my ranks:

Shaw’s identify has come up in lots of fantasy baseball offseason rumblings and I’m attempting to not get excited a few participant who has not but recorded a serious league plate look. Let’s all take a chill capsule.

Now, as Shaw appears to have made the most important league roster, he must be introduced up the ranks, however not by a lot. Not but at the very least. Day two within the massive leagues resulted in successful, however Shaw may have his work minimize out for him if he needs to remain there. He struggled in his final at-bat in opposition to Tanner Scott, notably with excessive warmth:

It’s unfair to guage a rookie ballplayer on two video games in a foreign country dealing with what may find yourself being one of many best groups of all time. The Dodgers bullpen is sort of as scary as its beginning rotation and touring midway throughout the planet can’t be one of the simplest ways to get your thoughts and physique proper in your first massive league recreation. Shaw had an indirect harm on the very starting of spring coaching and solely gathered 16 at-bats in Arizona. His slash line by these 16 ABs sits at .313/.421/.375. Anybody would name {that a} good spring.

However predicting how good Shaw can be in 2025 is a chilly begin downside. Listed here are three pretty totally different projections with the part ATC projection representing a median method:

In 2023, earlier than he was drafted, he completed out his faculty profession with 24 dwelling runs for the Maryland Terrapins. As soon as he turned a Cub, he completed out that summer season slashing .357/.400/.618 in 38 minor league video games stretched throughout three ranges. That turned heads. Then in 2024, to show it wasn’t a fluke, Shaw performed in 121 video games between AA and AAA and slashed .379/.488/.394. That drop in slugging proportion nonetheless resulted in 21 dwelling runs.

Now, it’s time for the massive leagues and we’ll all have to attend to see if Shaw can deal with big-league pitching. The potential is there and every projection system other than THE BAT X expects Shaw to slug above common. Even with some variation, ATC’s Vol stat, which measures the volatility throughout the totally different projection techniques in a participant’s projection, is a reasonably low 2.07, suggesting most techniques agree on Shaw. So draft away, however don’t inflate the value an excessive amount of. There’s a world during which Shaw sticks round all yr and matches that unbelievable OOPSY projection. There’s additionally one during which he struggles to catch as much as big-league velocity and desires to go again all the way down to AAA to construct up his confidence.

Lastly, the query of whether or not he can deal with the third base place defensively stays. Within the 18 innings during which he fielded the place in Tokyo, he made a throwing error. However, he confirmed flashes of vary that would simply praise the rangy Dansby Swanson subsequent to him at shortstop and Tokyo’s synthetic turf shouldn’t be the last word check of Shaws defensive potential. Nonetheless, it’s one thing to keep watch over. There’s little doubt Shaw can be examined in 2025, however fantasy managers who already drafted him ought to let loose a sigh of aid. He made it to the massive leagues.

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PS: What number of MLB debuts have occurred in a foreign country? I don’t know the reply, however I’m certain somebody on this nice neighborhood with a Baseball-Reference.com Stathead membership may discover a solution. For those who can, place what you’ve discovered within the feedback part.