Lively extension talks between the Blue Jays and famous person first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got here to an obvious halt final month. The start of Spring Coaching, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, got here and went and not using a deal. However that hasn’t stopped these negotiations from being a significant subject of dialogue round baseball within the weeks since.
A few of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; whereas extension negotiations are sometimes performed comparatively near the vest by each gamers and their golf equipment, Guerrero has been unusually candid concerning the negotiations all through the method. His public feedback have ranged from acknowledging again in December that the Jays had prolonged him a $340MM provide to his latest interview with ESPN the place he steered his asking value clocked in under $600MM over at the least 14 years.
Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking value at a internet current worth of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether or not the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or the next sticker value together with deferred cash that took the online current worth again all the way down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did provide Guerrero about $500MM, however with deferrals that knocked the online current worth all the way down to the $400-450MM vary, so the 2 sides had been about $50-100MM aside when it comes to NPV.
It’s an attention-grabbing growth, not just for the window it offers into Guerrero’s considering together with his closing season previous to free company simply across the nook, but in addition due to how uncommon it’s for a participant’s asking value to be reported on so particularly. With cheap confidence within the information that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract provide from the Jays, the choice by Toronto to not provide Guerrero that deal is an particularly attention-grabbing level of dialogue.
It’s simple to see why Guerrero would really feel comfy asking for that type of contract. The slugger is coming off an outstanding season on the plate for the Blue Jays final yr the place he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout fee of simply 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The efficiency was good for a sixth-place end within the AL’s stacked MVP race final yr, and when it comes to general manufacturing was roughly an ideal reproduction of his 2021 marketing campaign the place he posted a 166 wRC+ and completed second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now underneath his belt, it’s unattainable to argue in opposition to the truth that Guerrero is among the league’s most explosive offensive skills.
That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all of the extra tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play subsequent yr at simply 27 years outdated, one yr older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as maybe the most effective purpose for Guerrero to really feel emboldened to set his asking value at half a billion {dollars}. In spite of everything, the star outfielder’s mixture of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM cope with the Mets again in December. It’s the richest contract within the historical past {of professional} sports activities and fully shattered all contractual precedents. Not like Shohei Ohtani’s personal $700MM cope with the Dodgers, which has an estimated internet current worth of $461MM, Soto’s contract consists of no deferred cash.
In that context, Guerrero setting his asking value at roughly two-thirds of Soto’s deal is comprehensible. In spite of everything, neither participant contributes a lot within the area or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his finest he’s simply the closest comparability to Soto within the sport when it comes to age and general offensive means. The Blue Jays themselves clearly noticed Soto as a participant value splurging on, as they had been a finalist for his providers. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported again in December that the Jays’ provide to Soto clocked in underneath $700MM, however that reveals that Toronto has the monetary wherewithal to make an enormous provide and a willingness to place pen to paper on such a deal for a participant comparatively much like Guerrero. As talked about earlier, in addition they made a considerable provide to Guerrero that went past $400MM when it comes to NPV.
With that being stated, the comparability isn’t with out flaws. Guerrero is already roughly restricted to first base defensively, whereas Soto is able to enjoying satisfactory protection within the outfield corners and sure might theoretically transfer to first base sooner or later, as different nook outfielders like Bryce Harper have finished prior to now. Extra essential than both his barely extra versatile defensive talent set or the truth that he hit free company one yr youthful than Guerrero will, nonetheless, is the truth that Soto is solely in a category all his personal as an offensive expertise with a profession wRC+ (158) in the identical ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.
Setting Soto apart, there are legitimate causes for concern with regards to Guerrero. The slugger has proven a stage of year-to-year volatility that might be tough to abdomen for a franchise cornerstone on what could be the second-largest contract in MLB historical past, and is only one yr faraway from a lackluster 2023 marketing campaign the place he posted a wRC+ of 118 with simply 1.3 fWAR. One additionally doesn’t need to look very far to search out first basemen who had been comparable and even larger offensive skills than Guerrero at his age however noticed their manufacturing take a nosedive of their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the obvious examples of the pitfalls that may include providing even immense offensive skills franchise-altering contracts underneath the idea they’ll stay productive into their mid-to-late 30s.
One other consideration that have to be taken into consideration from Toronto’s perspective is the membership’s personal prospects of near-term success on the huge league stage. The Jays, as presently constructed, function an getting old roster with loads of holes and query marks that determine to solely develop within the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios proceed to age whereas items of the membership’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk attain free company. The membership is coming off a fifth-place end within the AL East final yr and is projected by Fangraphs for a file of simply 82-80, lower than a full win forward of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division main projection of 86-76. If Toronto had been to enter a rebuild within the close to future after giving Guerrero an enormous contract, they’d threat losing the prime of their famous person’s profession and returning to rivalry solely when his finest years are already behind him.
Should you had been within the Blue Jays’ footwear, would you’ve signed on the dotted line to maintain Guerrero within the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say within the ballot under:
