Uninterested in the identical previous groupthink that consumes the fantasy baseball group? Identical right here. Opinions are what make sports activities conversations nice. Having your opinions challenged forces you to take a step again and reevaluate how you are feeling about sure gamers. Including to that thought, studying one article a few prospect or participant shouldn’t be the one useful resource used to correctly consider a participant. That’s the concept behind this text. Every member of the Pitcher Listing dynasty employees has a novel opinion. Why not create an article that gives two completely different breakdowns of the identical gamers? This text seems to be at 4 completely different prospects that Martin Sekulski and I disagree on. We every attempt to persuade you that our facet is the best outlook to have.
Head over to the Pitcher Listing dynasty web page to take a look at the remainder of the good work the crew has been producing together with write-ups on all 30 farm methods.
Roderick Arias – SS, New York Yankees
The Professional-Arias Argument – Matt Heckman
For some time, it appeared like each New York Yankees worldwide free agent signing was going to show right into a technology prospect. Signing with the Yankees and the publicity that comes with that inflated their dynasty worth to unachievable ranges. First, it was Jasson Dominguez who was topped the following Mike Trout earlier than his seventeenth birthday. His dynasty worth has fluctuated almost yearly since with excessive highs and low lows. Following carefully behind Dominguez was Roderick Arias. The highest-rated prospect within the 2022 worldwide class signed with the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic and immediately turned a extremely sought-after prospect in dynasty circles. The hype definitely went too far and Arias fell flat on his face in his first style {of professional} pitching. Now, the pendulum has swung too far within the different path. Arias is a superb prospect to purchase low on getting into 2025.
The very first thing that dynasty managers ought to search for in a prospect is athleticism. Arias definitely has loads of that. Standing at 6’0″, Arias has nice velocity and pure baseball instincts. The switch-hitting shortstop has noticeable energy from the left facet. An enormous leg kick with a barely upper-cut swing creates some monster dwelling runs. His affected person strategy and glorious understanding of the strike zone pressure opposing pitchers to assault him over the plate the place he does injury. Arias already has a pure really feel for tapping into his pull facet and will proceed including muscle as he continues to mature. Dreaming of Arias pulling homers into the quick porch at Yankee Stadium needs to be sufficient to get fantasy managers hot-and-bothered. The facility is just not as prolific from the best facet however remains to be a stable instrument. Arias has simple 25-home-run potential if every thing clicks. Add that to his plus-plus velocity and also you get an attractive fantasy asset.
“If every thing clicks” is the largest concern and definitely one which Martin goes to hit on. Arias’ temporary skilled profession has not been easy crusing as he has struggled to make constant contact. Excessive strikeout charges and low batting averages definitely create some concern. Nonetheless, with younger hitters, dynasty managers ought to search for stable development. Arias was displaying simply that earlier than struggling a fractured hand. In his last 47 video games, Arias slashed .276/.390/.471. Extra notably, he minimize his strikeout fee over that interval all the way down to 24.1%. His 600 PA tempo over that timeframe was 20 dwelling runs and 47 stolen bases. After whiffing over 40% of the time by June, Arias whiffed lower than 30% of the time in July and August.
Arias will probably be 20 for nearly everything of the 2025 season. Development for prospects is just not all the time linear and dynasty managers ought to acknowledge that Arias has as a lot upside as almost any prospect in baseball. 25 dwelling run and 40 stolen base upside doesn’t develop on timber but Arias is being utterly missed in dynasty circles. If his hit instrument can simply enhance to common, Arias will flip into a big dynasty asset. But, for some purpose, he’s being positioned exterior of the highest 100 in most publications. This could change and Arias is a superb buy-low candidate.
The Flip Aspect – Martin Sekulski
I hate that I’ve to debate in opposition to Roderick Arias, one of the toolsy prospects within the Minors. Arias got here out weapons blazing within the Complicated League in 2023, hitting .267 with six homers and 17 steals in 27 video games. His batted-ball information was spectacular for his age, reaching MLB averages (90 mph avg EV, 103 mph ninetieth) as a young person. Underneath the floor, Arias had proven gaps in his swing, producing a 39% whiff fee and an general contact fee of simply over 60%. Usually, these aren’t of concern, however a 22% strikeout fee on the Complicated stage is an early crimson flag.
Issues escalated in a short time for Arias in 2024. Enjoying at Single-A, the 20-year-old accrued 115 punchouts over the primary three months of the season, ending June with a 41.2% strikeout fee. Arias confirmed indicators of life in July, batting .282 whereas reducing his Ok-rate all the way down to 26%. The general season line was putrid. Arias slashed .233/.335/.393 with 13 homers, 21 doubles, and a 31% strikeout fee. Arias maintained his EVs and improved his general contact fee to 63%, however he had only a 6% barrel fee and a 37.9% hard-hit fee.
A 30+ p.c strikeout fee is problematic no matter stage and is a big trigger for concern. Nothing within the profile reveals something greater than a 40-grade hit instrument for Arias. His energy upside means nothing in the event you can’t make constant contact. Arias additionally has proven a propensity to chase early and infrequently, which doesn’t assist his strikeout woes. At the least Clifford is close to 70% and infrequently chases. We’ve seen this profile earlier than in busted prospects like Elijah Inexperienced. The one optimistic from Arias to this point is that his velocity is no less than a plus. I’m assured his 37 steals from 2024 are unsustainable at increased ranges because the catching high quality will enhance, and Arias grades as a 60-grade runner, which isn’t an elite metric. I’ve no drawback with Arias inside a high 200 rankings, though he isn’t my cup of tea. It’s egregious to rank Arias as a top-80 prospect. Nonetheless, Arias suits Matt’s superb prospect profile; excessive upside performs with very low flooring (see Bolte, Henry).
Ryan Clifford – OF/1B, New York Mets
The Professional-Clifford Argument – Martin Sekulski
The subsequent hitter on my record is flexible Mets prospect Ryan Clifford. The 21-year-old was an Eleventh-round choose of the Astros in 2022 and joined the Mets within the Justin Verlander commerce. Clifford was stellar in 2023, slashing .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers and 20 doubles throughout three ranges. This season, Clifford nonetheless mashed 19 homers, had 27 doubles, and posted a 131 wRC+. Though his floor stats regarded comparable, he completed with a deceptive strikeout fee of over 36%. Don’t get misplaced in that quantity. Though Clifford does have swing-and-miss in his profile, he’s additionally completely passive on the plate. His swing fee is effectively beneath 40%, leading to a near-17% stroll fee and likewise loads of strikeouts. Conversely, Clifford doesn’t chase typically so if they’ll get him to be extra aggressive on the plate, it might yield even higher outcomes.
Clifford has a few of the greatest energy within the Minors, persistently producing exit velocities effectively above the league common. There may be little doubt about his potential to influence the sport as a future 30-homer bat. His final path to success will hinge on elevated aggression, constant contact, and discovering an inexpensive batting common. Clifford’s profile isn’t a lot completely different from what Pete Alonso provides to the Mets, though his energy isn’t at that stage.
Matt’s argument in opposition to Clifford will probably be that he’s a batting common legal responsibility and is a three-true-outcome profile. I can’t argue that, as I acknowledged earlier. However I see game-changing energy in his profile, and his energy alone ought to assist him attain the large leagues. I don’t view Clifford as a high-end prospect, however his energy ceiling is akin to a few of the higher prospects within the Minor Leagues.
The Flip Aspect – Matt Heckman
Generally, a prospect is a part of a notable deal at a commerce deadline, and their dynasty worth inflates no matter their on-field manufacturing. After Ryan Clifford was dealt to the Mets as a part of the Justin Verlander commerce, Clifford was all of the sudden topped the following breakout prospect. Certain, he was taking part in effectively for Houston. 18 dwelling runs in 83 video games is nothing to scoff at. The query is how lengthy are dynasty managers going to carry onto this scorching streak? The season-long numbers have by no means been overly spectacular and it’s time to cease valuing Clifford like a top-100 prospect.
There may be one factor that Clifford does effectively. He hits for energy. Clifford’s left-handed swing packs pop and when he was projecting as an outfielder, that carried intrigue. This previous 12 months, the Mets shifted Clifford away from the outfield, having him prioritize first base. An influence-hitting first baseman is loads much less intriguing. Even so, dwelling run-focused first basemen are helpful in fantasy the entire time. Simply take a look at Matt Olson. For those with prolific energy, completely. That isn’t Clifford. Clifford’s dwelling run charges have settled simply above the league common. Essentially the most dwelling runs he has hit in a Minor League season is 24. His swing is just not designed to faucet into his pull facet persistently, reducing his ceiling. There may be 25 dwelling run potential in Clifford’s bat however not far more than that.
With a ceiling of 25-28 dwelling runs, Clifford goes to want to supply in different classes. Stolen bases aren’t a part of Clifford’s sport. He has stolen a complete of 11 bases in his skilled profession. Clifford’s lackluster velocity is a part of his shift to first base and doesn’t mission to get higher. Fantasy managers mustn’t depend on greater than 5 on the Main League stage. The opposite space fantasy managers can immediately cross off their record is batting common. Clifford’s hit instrument is suspect. He runs a number of deep counts and has whiff points that result in excessive strikeout charges. The best single-season batting common Clifford has been in a position to put up is .262. After hitting simply .228 final season, his true ceiling is probably going someplace round .250. This isn’t going to assist inflate his fantasy worth.
Rating Clifford inside the highest 100 prospects for fantasy baseball feels irresponsible. In OBP leagues, Clifford’s excessive stroll charges assist present extra worth, however he nonetheless lacks the upside many different prospects possess. If dynasty managers are searching for a one-category participant, ensure that participant can carry your fantasy crew in that class. Assume Xavier Edwards along with his velocity, Luis Arraez along with his batting common, and even Kyle Schwarber along with his energy. Clifford doesn’t have that form of upside to his dwelling run totals and is a straightforward prospect to promote in dynasty circles.
Christian Moore – 2B, Los Angeles Angels
The Professional-Moore Argument – Martin Sekulski
Moore was a rocketship following his choice because the eighth general choose within the 2024 Draft. After a monster season at Tennessee that noticed Moore slash .375/.451/.797 with 34 homers and 19 doubles, the 22-year-old blitzed the Minor Leagues. In 25 video games, Moore posted a .984 OPS with six homers and 6 doubles. Moore probably wouldn’t be on this dialogue if he hadn’t sustained a meniscus damage in August. The Angels are hyper-aggressive with their prospects, and Moore was on the quick observe to the Present.
Moore’s profile is extra attention-grabbing now that his energy has totally developed. In two prior school seasons, Moore tallied 27 homers, in comparison with the 34 he hit in his last season. His energy is totally legit, producing a 96 mph common EV and a ninetieth percentile over 112 mph, rating among the many elite of all NCAA hitters. Exit velocities that top will play wherever, and Moore has already confirmed he can get to energy with a wooden bat as effectively, topping out at over 112mph within the Minors. Moore isn’t only a pull-side energy man, displaying reliable dwelling run energy to all fields.
Though I rank Moore inside my Prime 35 prospects, his profile isn’t good. Contact points plagued Moore as a sophomore, together with an general contact fee effectively beneath 70%. However he rebounded in 2024, reaching an general fee of over 77% and round 82% in-zone. He’s not going to win you a batting title, however Moore makes sufficient contact to persistently discover that energy and never be a drain in your common. If you happen to can abdomen a strikeout fee within the mid-20s and a median of round .260, Moore gives you 25+ homers and 10-15 steals. Matt will probably level to Zach Neto, a fellow Angel and prospect who was additionally rushed to the Majors. Moore and Neto have comparable profiles, with Moore having considerably extra pop and Neto being a superior runner. Not many individuals would argue that Neto is a Prime 125/150 asset in Dynasty, and Moore may even attain that stage.
The Flip Aspect – Matt Heckman
Any prospect transferring shortly by the Minor Leagues should be actually good proper? If Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford can do it, ought to Christian Moore be positioned in that very same class? Moore is just not the primary prospect the Angels have executed this with. Each Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have been pushed shortly by the Minor Leagues because the Angels tried so as to add expertise to their Main League roster. Fantasy managers have been disenchanted by the rookie seasons of each Schanuel and Neto. Neto hit .225 with an 88 wRC+ in his first season whereas Schanuel hit .250 with a 104 wRC+. The regarding half is that each hitters have been much more polished than Moore. Because the dynasty group continues to inflate Moore’s worth, he’s a straightforward promote candidate for individuals who personal him.
In a small pattern after being drafted, Moore put up big numbers. In 25 video games, Moore crushed six homers whereas batting .347. Martin already hit on the form of energy upside he has and I’m not attempting to refute that. Energy is nice and sounds even higher on the second base place. We noticed it with Nolan Gorman’s dynasty worth and the way inflated it turned on account of his energy upside. The difficulty is Gorman couldn’t hit sufficient to stay on the Main League stage (no less than not but). Moore profiles in an analogous approach. Now wait. Moore hit .347 final season. Certain, however shift your consideration to his BABIP. Moore’s BABIP was at .439 final season. The best BABIP amongst certified Main League hitters final 12 months was Seiya Suzuki at .370. Even in the event you take .100 factors off of Moore’s BABIP from final season, it could nonetheless end effectively above the league common. Now, take .100 factors off his batting common and you’re looking at a .247 hitter.
Moore’s profile has tons of swing and miss in it as evidenced by his 17.2% swinging strike fee in Double-A. Moore’s swing is designed to drive the ball. He may be overly aggressive at occasions attempting to get to his energy creating extra danger. Dynasty managers ought to anticipate his strikeout fee to creep up because the pattern measurement grows bigger. With a suspect hit instrument, Moore’s dynasty worth is reliant on each energy and velocity. The facility upside is there, however Moore’s velocity is extra common than game-changing. He profiles for 10-12 stolen bases in a season however nothing to set him aside. A good projection is one thing just like Brandon Lowe. Not a foul participant, however not a must-own prospect. He needs to be thought of a fringe top-100 prospect versus a can’t miss man which is the place many have him.
Cooper Kinney– 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
The Professional-Kinney Argument – Matt Heckman
Let’s begin with a preface. My love for Cooper Kinney is to not declare he’s a top-50 prospect within the sport. The declare right here is that Kinney is criminally underrated in dynasty circles. The Rays took Kinney thirty fourth general within the 2021 draft however shoulder surgical procedure pressured him to overlook everything of the 2022 season. He performed effectively in his first full season in 2023 however did not put up the form of numbers that generate consideration from the dynasty group. The dearth of energy in Kinney’s 2023 efficiency is probably going attributed to a continued restoration from his shoulder damage. Digging into his 2024, there’s a lot for fantasy managers to love in his profile. The daring take is that Kinney might turn out to be among the best offensive second baseman in all of baseball if every thing clicks.
Watching Kinney play, he does all of it. He began video games at three completely different positions across the infield final season though his dwelling is probably going on the best facet of the infield. His swing is silky easy as Kinney has nice barrel management and persistently sprays line drives everywhere in the subject. His leg-kick and candy left-handed swing makes his dwelling runs simple to fall in love with. Kinney has proven enhancements to his plate self-discipline every season and actually noticed his numbers take off all through 2024.
Kinney obtained off to a gradual begin however exploded after that. From April 13 by July 28, Kinney slashed an unbelievable .322/.379/.548. In these 314 plate appearances, Kinney posted an ISO of .226. Kinney didn’t hit his first dwelling run till Could 22 however then they began to come back in bunches. Kinney hit ten dwelling runs from Could 22 by July 28. His 600-plate look tempo over that span was 27 dwelling runs. The top of Kinney’s 2024 season was derailed by an undisclosed damage however mustn’t overshadow the strides Kinney made on the plate.
Sturdiness is the largest concern in his profile. Whereas dangerous, Kinney is value consideration within the again half of high 100 lists. His elite means to hit line drives, alongside along with his lowering strikeout fee, offers Kinney a plus hit instrument projection. The event of his energy has remodeled his ceiling right into a second base prospect with 30-home-run potential. The icing on the cake was Kinney’s means to deal with left-handed pitching which he slashed .293/.356/.537 off of final season. If Kinney can keep wholesome he’s going to fly up prospect boards in 2025. Get in on him now earlier than the remainder of the business catches up.
The Flip Aspect – Martin Sekulski
Cooper Kinney was a first-round choose in 2021 and has been a serviceable participant in his first three seasons within the Minors. Kinney slashed .289/.352/.494 this season with ten homers, 32 doubles, and 6 steals at Excessive-A, though he performed in simply 87 video games. There are some particular issues to love in his profile. His contact charges are above common, and his general plate self-discipline is ok. Kinney has additionally flashed uncooked energy, though the ultimate output has been marginal.
Missed time is an underlying theme in Kinney’s profession. He missed all the 2022 season on account of a shoulder damage, and after surviving the 2023 season, Kinney missed much more time in 2024 with an undisclosed damage. A prospect’s worth is just nearly as good because the time spent on the sphere. Take a look at somebody like Jordan Lawlar. His upside is great, however sturdiness is a priority.
I’ve considerations about his batted-ball profile as effectively. Kinney has improved his hard-hit charges and EVs, that are nonetheless beneath common. He additionally had only a 28% fly-ball fee in 2024 with a career-best of 30%. Plus, Kinney’s pull fee is just 35.5%. So how a lot energy will he come into in the event you’ve obtained questionable uncooked energy, are struggling to elevate, and can’t get to your pull facet typically?
Kinney has been an above-average performer, however age-to-level is one other issue. Cooper is a three-year professional who has but to succeed in past Excessive-A, and granted, accidents have been an element, however I must see extra of his enhancements on the subsequent stage. The ultimate query mark is his strategy. Kinney is hyper-aggressive on the plate, swinging over 53% of the time. His strategy performs nice within the decrease ranges on account of his contact abilities, however how will he fare in opposition to pitchers on the higher ranges? I’m okay with Matt’s evaluation that Kinney is a stable prospect, however he’s ranked inside his Prime 85. I’ve Kinney exterior the Prime 20 within the Rays’ group in my rankings, and he was not amongst my ‘simply missed’ on my Prime 200 general prospects. If Kinney can keep wholesome, he has an opportunity to be a brilliant utility-type participant however not an MLB common.
