We’re approaching late January, and the foremost league offers that the Brewers have handed out this offseason have gone to Elvin Rodríguez, who has made eight main league appearances (none of which had been in 2024), and Grant Wolfram, who has by no means pitched within the majors. Willy Adames, the group’s star shortstop, left in free company, and there aren’t any inside choices that don’t include main query marks. The one acquisition the Brewers have made to handle the large gap on the left facet of their infield was the inclusion of Caleb Durbin, a mid-level prospect who has additionally by no means performed within the majors, within the Devin Williams commerce.
On one hand, it’s not that stunning. The Brewers have adopted an M.O. wherein they wait out the free agent market till these disgruntled gamers who haven’t gotten what they had been after resolve to accept much less on a short-term deal. 4 current offers illustrate this strategy:
Yasmani Grandal signed a one-year, $16 million take care of a participant choice on January 14, 2019. He was an All-Star in his lone season in Milwaukee and signed a four-year take care of the White Sox the next offseason.
Mike Moustakas, who the Brewers acquired on the 2018 commerce deadline, signed a one-year, $10 million take care of a mutual choice on February 19, 2019. Moustakas performed properly in 2019 and in addition signed a four-year deal, this one with Cincinnati, after the season.
Kolten Wong signed a two-year, $18 million take care of a membership choice on February 5, 2021. He performed properly for 2 years and was traded earlier than that closing season, wherein he kind of inexplicably flamed out in Seattle.
Rhys Hoskins, coming off a season misplaced to an ACL damage, signed a two-year, $34 million contract (the second 12 months being a participant choice) on January 26, 2024.
All 4 of these offers had been for stable veteran gamers who, for one motive or one other, weren’t getting what they wished from the free-agent market. All 4 had been signed in mid-January or later. It’s clear that in some unspecified time in the future Milwaukee realized that they weren’t going to be competing for the gamers on the prime of the market, and as an alternative would work with the leftovers and hope to get some good manufacturing at a minimize price.
The economics of this entire scenario are one other problem; I had a draft of this text wherein I received deep into baseball revenues and all types of different stuff I don’t fully perceive, however it become a less-than-perfectly-informed manifesto about why the Dodgers are unhealthy for baseball and I didn’t really feel it was fairly prepared for prime time. (I could write about why I believe baseball wants an NBA-style wage cap sometime quickly, however this isn’t the place). So as an alternative of moving into why all of that’s unfair, I’m going to ask this query:
Ought to we be speaking about Alex Bregman?
Bregman has not signed, which is a transparent indication that he’s not getting the forms of affords that he desires. He reportedly turned down a six-year, $156 million take care of Houston earlier within the offseason, and I’m undecided they’d supply it once more if he requested.
Now, Alex Bregman will not be the MVP-caliber participant that he was in 2018 and 2019, however he’s as stable as they arrive. He’s earned between 4.1 and 4.9 WAR in every of the final three seasons, he hits with good energy (between 23 and 26 homers in every of these three years), he performs good protection at third base, and he ought to be one of many league’s extra affected person hitters — this final one is a bit up within the air as a result of he inexplicably had a 6.9% stroll price in 2024 after having been at 11% or increased in every of the earlier six seasons (and as excessive as 17.2% in his 2019 season, a 12 months wherein I’d in all probability have voted for him for MVP).
The Brewers are a reigning division champion with a stable roster in a weak division. They completely have postseason aspirations and even when they’re enthusiastic about Durbin, they want a shortstop or a 3rd baseman. Theoretically, Bregman is an ideal match.
Nevertheless, in a dialogue associated to the baseball economics one above, the Brewers won’t threat signing Bregman to a long-term contract. That, to me, is the foremost distinction between the league’s richest groups and those within the center; it’s that the rich groups can afford to mess up, they usually can afford to pay lifeless cash to unhealthy gamers on the finish of their careers. (That is the crux of my “NBA-style cap” answer: capping max contracts at 4 or 5 years signifies that mid-market groups could be much more prepared to get in on the bidding as a result of the chance of long-term injury is significantly diminished.)
Is there a situation the place the Brewers resolve that Bregman actually might be the distinction for this group they usually make a run at him as kind of a juiced-up model of the offers cited firstly of this text? I’m going to be very clear: I’ve seen nothing that makes me imagine that this proprietor and this entrance workplace are going to be aggressive sufficient to have the funds for Bregman even when it’s on, say, a three-year take care of two opt-outs. It’s not how they roll, and I do assume an enormous a part of the Brewers’ current success has been as a result of they’re very cautious with how they spend their restricted sources. However I believe the Brewers in all probability might afford it in the event that they determined this was the second to push the payroll a bit and supply Bregman one thing like three years and $90 million, with opt-outs after the primary two seasons.
I nonetheless don’t assume it has any actual likelihood of occurring. However the query that this leads me to is that this one: what about Ha-Seong Kim? Kim’s market has been remarkably quiet. After the Giants signed Adames, there aren’t many good groups who want a center infielder. You possibly can make an argument about Atlanta, and possibly the Yankees. However I don’t assume any of these groups want one just like the Brewers do.
And Kim simply looks like a pure match with Milwaukee. He’s an distinctive defensive participant with some versatility (he’s primarily a shortstop however has performed plenty of second base and just a little little bit of third base in his profession), and he can type of hit; in his final three mixed seasons, he’s very barely over league common offensively. The Brewers can work with that, and in comparison with the remainder of the remaining non-Bregman choices, Kim is the one one who would get me remotely excited.
Kim’s market is down as a result of, as acknowledged, there aren’t a ton of groups who’re searching for a participant like him, and since a shoulder damage suffered on the finish of final season means he received’t be prepared for opening day, and since his defensive metrics fell off a tad final season. Personally, I’m prepared to miss that final one; he was nonetheless good, and he’s solely going to be 29 in 2025.
That is the place I really feel the Brewers ought to pounce. I don’t assume it’s very reasonable for the Brewers to get Bregman, however possibly they will get Kim. Perhaps on one thing just a little past the contract that Hoskins signed final season, one thing like two years and $45 million with an opt-out.
Will it occur? I don’t know. The Brewers are in all probability making means much less on their TV deal this season than they’ve been in earlier years. However whereas these numbers are all shrouded in thriller, the web believes that every group is making about $200 million each season in income sharing, earlier than you account for issues like gate receipts (the Brewers draw properly) and sponsorships, which in line with the group are in fine condition (“pretty much as good as they’ve ever been,” in line with president of enterprise operations Rick Schlesinger in a September 30 interview).
If the Brewers actually are bringing in $200 million in income sharing each season, and in the event that they certainly made a $36 million revenue in 2024, (as reported by Forbes), I’m going to be irritated in the event that they don’t find yourself with Kim and even Bregman (except one thing surprising, like a commerce, occurs). This can be a good group that ought to be favored heading into the division race they usually have a gaping gap of their infield. I get that there are challenges for small market groups (once more, I’ll write that different article someday), however this isn’t signing Juan Soto; that is signing a man who had a 96 OPS+ in 2024 who doesn’t have any apparent suitors.
I’m usually fairly sympathetic to these challenges and I get why the Brewers run the group the best way they do. I don’t assume that signing the soon-to-be 31-year-old Bregman to a six-year deal (or longer) could be a wise transfer for this group and I wouldn’t advocate for it. But it surely looks like there might be a possibility to get certainly one of these guys on a shorter deal. Shorter offers keep away from long-term threat.
Crucially, I don’t actually imagine the Brewers are low-cost — I simply assume they’re cautious. I is perhaps kidding myself just a little, however they prolonged Christian Yelich, they spend on their participant improvement and services, they do these shorter offers when the chance arises, they usually’re often lively on the commerce deadline. But when the Brewers sit out free company this 12 months and fail to improve the infield once they have a golden alternative in entrance of them, I may need to rethink my stance. Don’t make me try this, Brewers! Signal certainly one of these guys!
