Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is eligible totally free company after the 2025 season, and his future is undoubtedly the largest looming query hanging over the Blue Jays as they put together for what could be their closing yr of management over the All-Star first baseman. GM Ross Atkins stated at season’s finish that the Jays can be seeking to begin extension talks this winter, and Guerrero himself confirmed these negotiations have been happening in a current interview with Abriendo Sports activities (hat tip to Z101’s Hector Gomez and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith).
Guerrero reiterated that he has curiosity in staying in Toronto, and is “able to go” in signing an extension if the Jays meet his asking value. Nonetheless, “what they supplied me will not be even near what I’m in search of,” Guerrero stated, noting that Toronto’s most up-to-date provide was price round $340MM. Notably, this provide got here after Juan Soto signed his 15-year, $765MM cope with the Mets, and utterly reset the marketplace for celebrity gamers.
Solely restricted time could also be out there to shut the hole that exists between the 2 sides, as Guerrero stated that he has let the entrance workplace know that he’ll stop negotiations after the primary full day of the Jays’ Spring Coaching camp. It’s a little bit of an uncommon self-imposed deadline date, as most gamers set Opening Day as their unofficial endpoint for reaching an extension. Clearly an extension can occur at any level earlier than a participant enters free company, but gamers typically want to maintain centered solely on baseball as soon as the season begins, and thus contract talks are normally restricted to the offseason.
It isn’t unusual for some offers, after all, to be introduced a couple of days or perhaps weeks into April, if talks are on the proverbial five-yard line by Opening Day and only a few closing particulars wanted to be confirmed. Likewise, Guerrero in all probability isn’t going to finish all talks in late February if he and the Jays have labored out most elements of a really profitable (and due to this fact fairly advanced) extension. That stated, decreasing the remaining negotiation window to roughly two months is a reasonably public approach of accelerating the strain on Toronto’s entrance workplace.
That is purely hypothesis on my half, however the earlier “deadline” is also Guerrero’s approach of leaving the door open for a commerce. If an extension can’t be labored out earlier than Spring Coaching correctly begins and the Blue Jays really feel Guerrero received’t re-sign subsequent winter, the Jays may pivot and attempt to commerce Guerrero for some longer-term property previous to Opening Day. To be clear, if Toronto spends the remainder of its offseason including expertise to take one other run at competition in 2025, it could appear way more probably that the Jays simply preserve Guerrero to maintain their roster as robust as doable in what could be one thing of a closing run for the Guerrero/Bo Bichette core.
The size of the $340MM provide wasn’t specified, however a ten-year, $340MM pact produces “solely” a median annual worth of $34MM per season, which ranks tied for the Fifteenth-highest AAV in baseball historical past. 9 years and $340MM is a $37.77MM AAV that ranks because the seventh-highest all-time, topped solely by the newest offers signed by Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Choose. An eight-year, $340MM pact equals $42.5MM in AAV, placing Guerrero behind solely Soto, Ohtani, Scherzer, and Verlander.
Guerrero doesn’t flip 26 till March, nevertheless, so an eight-year deal solely runs via his age-33 season. Even a ten-year deal brings Guerrero via simply his age-35 marketing campaign, and a longer-term deal within the $340MM vary solely lowers the AAV to a fair larger extent. It isn’t essentially clear what Guerrero is in search of when it comes to contract size, however when it comes to pure {dollars}, it’s simple to see why he would balk at a suggestion price barely greater than half of what Soto (who can also be getting into his age-26 season) obtained from New York.
From the Blue Jays’ perspective, the hole in manufacturing between Soto and Guerrero would justify a spot in earnings, although it isn’t fairly as giant a divide as one may think. Soto’s large 2024 marketing campaign with the Yankees boosted his asking value via the ceiling, however trying simply at his first six MLB seasons, Soto hit .284/.421/.524 with 160 house runs in 3375 plate appearances, with a 154 wRC+ and 28.2 fWAR.
By means of his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero has hit .288/.363/.500 in 3540 PA, with the very same complete of 160 homers, and a 137 wRC+ and 17 fWAR. For each gamers, their worth is basically derived from their bat, as public defensive and baserunning metrics paint Guerrero and Soto as nicely under common in each departments.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal lately mentioned what it’d take to increase Guerrero, and floated the thought of a contract of someplace between $500MM-$600MM. Assuming no deferred cash can be concerned, this might make Guerrero the second-highest paid participant in baseball historical past, behind solely Soto. “Extreme as it’d sound to the typical fan…be mindful, the Jays would want to pay a premium for stopping Guerrero from testing the market. And in the event that they lose him, their already disgruntled fan base would possibly revolt,” Rosenthal writes.
The latter level is one other over-arching aspect of the Guerrero talks, as maybe no executives in baseball are on as a lot of a sizzling seat as Atkins and workforce president Mark Shapiro. Whereas the Blue Jays got here out of a rebuild to succeed in the playoffs in 2020, 2022, 2023, the membership didn’t win even a single sport throughout these journeys to the postseason, and Toronto’s nosedive to a 74-88 report in 2024 could possibly be an indication that the Jays’ aggressive window may already be closed.
Toronto’s ardent pursuits of each Ohtani final offseason and Soto this winter indicated that possession was ready to go the space in bidding on top-flight expertise, although it stays to be seen if the Jays view Guerrero fairly in the identical tier these different two superstars. It was only a yr in the past that Guerrero was coming off an underwhelming 118 wRC+ in 2023, and there have been questions on whether or not Guerrero was even price any type of long-term funding. For comparability’s sake, Soto’s “worst” full season as calculated by wRC+ was his 2019 marketing campaign, when he posted a 143 wRC+ in 659 PA whereas additionally catching fireplace within the postseason to assist the Nationals win the World Sequence.
Viewing Guerrero in relation to Soto particularly is a comp that Guerrero’s reps on the Prime Company would probably welcome, because it retains Guerrero even subconsciously linked to Soto’s elite wage tier. Rafael Devers’ ten-year, $313.5MM extension with the Crimson Sox can also be regularly talked about as a Guerrero comp, as Devers was additionally getting into his age-26 season. Guerrero has some statistical edge (Devers had a 123 wRC+ in his first six seasons previous to his extension) and thus an argument to earn greater than Devers bought from Boston, however maybe the Blue Jays’ $340MM-ish quantity displays the thought of Guerrero as solely barely higher than Devers.
It is also, after all, that the Jays are keen to pay nicely above $340MM, however supplied that determine as an early gauge on Guerrero’s asking value within the wake of Soto’s contract. Loads of time nonetheless exists for the 2 sides to finally match up on a suitable extension, and it could possibly be that Guerrero backs off his early-spring deadline if some progress has been made, even when a brand new deal isn’t precisely imminent.
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