The debates surrounding participant worth in fantasy baseball rage on all year long, however they’re at their highest significance throughout the offseason. Roster building, commerce talks, and draft preparation are all on the minds of fantasy managers all over the place, and the selections they make now could have lasting impacts on their season(s) going ahead.
Few positions can affect a fantasy group the best way a primary baseman can. They’re typically one of many major sources of energy, common, and RBI in a fantasy lineup, and might drastically change the best way a roster appears. A great first baseman units you up for fulfillment week in and week out, whereas a below-average one can result in a disappointing season.
No two first basemen are precisely alike, however I attempted to base these matchups on the gamers’ flooring and ceiling in fantasy, in addition to their bodily traits to make the comparisons as truthful as doable. I attempted to keep away from the “Participant A has extra energy upside than participant B due to (insert peak/weight right here)” however, whereas it’s not an important issue, it’s nonetheless an element.
Listed here are three first baseman comparisons I anticipate fantasy managers considering getting into 2025.
Prime Ten: Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman
These two names have been talked about in the identical sentence for years, ever because the Atlanta Braves opted to chop ties with Freddie Freeman in favor of Matt Olson previous to the 2022 season. Because of the immense reputation that Freeman had created with the Braves’ fanbase, this was a transfer crammed with emotion for all events. Atlanta needed to say goodbye to a franchise cornerstone, Freeman was compelled to depart a spot the place he constructed a profession, and Olson handled the stress that comes with changing a franchise icon.
On paper, it regarded like each events adjusted to their new conditions simply tremendous. Each gamers eclipsed the 3-WAR mark in all three seasons because the swap, and every completed within the high 4 in MVP voting in at the least one season. Actually, Freeman completed immediately above Olson in 2023, with the previous ending third behind simply his teammate, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuña Jr. From 2022 to 2024, the 2 famous person first basemen rank #1 and #2 in cumulative WAR, with Freeman main by virtually six wins.
Freeman vs. Olson (2022 – 2024)
Benefit: Freeman
So Freeman is best, proper? Sure, over the past three years, the previous Courageous has been higher than the present Courageous and reaped his rewards. Freeman gained his second World Collection trophy of his profession with the Dodgers in 2024, whereas the Braves had been eradicated by the Padres within the Wild Card spherical. On paper that is a straightforward comparability, Freeman wins in a landslide.
Effectively, it’s not that easy.
The one main space which Olson stands out towards Freeman is energy output. You may take away all of Olson’s homers from the 2024 season and he would nonetheless greatest his counterpart between 2022-2024 in that stat. That’s to not say that the Dodgers’ first baseman can’t hit residence runs (see: World Collection Recreation One), however in fantasy, residence runs come at a premium, and Olson offers much more of them than Freeman. Over the course of the present decade, solely 4 gamers have hit extra dingers than the Braves’ slugger (Choose, Ohtani, Schwarber, Alonso). The deeper numbers point out that Olson hits the ball more durable extra typically than Freeman, which has led to him successful the house run battle in every of the previous three seasons.
Sure, this desk exhibits regression between 2023 and 2024 for Matt Olson. That stated, he hit 54 homers with a .604 slugging share in ’23, each of that are fairly important outliers in comparison with the remainder of his profession. Going ahead, I count on him to be comfortably within the 35-40 vary. Regardless that he fell in need of that mark in ’24 (29), his bat velocity is among the many elite, and his launch angles have been constant since 2022.
The stats additionally present that Freeman’s plate disciple is head and shoulders above Olson although, which has led to the close to 50-point hole in OBP in (virtually) every of these seasons. OBP is a vital statistic to prioritize in 5×5 leagues, so Freeman’s worth is increased there, nevertheless that worth is just not irreplaceable. From 2022 to 2024, eight gamers have had seasons with a better OBP than Freeman’s excessive mark (.410). Solely Aaron Choose has hit extra homers in a single season than Olson throughout that point.
Benefit: Olson (however barely)
There are additionally some query marks concerning Freeman’s longevity going ahead. He turned 35 in September and will likely be enjoying in his sixteenth season in Main League Baseball. His competitors is a spring hen compared. Olson is 30 and is simply getting into his eighth season within the present. Freeman’s damage troubles had been additionally well-documented within the postseason. The veteran suffered from ankle and rib points and was compelled to get surgical procedure to handle the troubles in his proper ankle.
Each gamers have been almost ever-present of their groups’ lineups, as in 22 mixed seasons, they’ve registered only one season wherein they didn’t play greater than 110 video games (Olson’s 59 in 2017). That longevity could also be catching as much as the elder one although, and at 35, it could have an effect on him greater than it could have in earlier years. From a dynasty perspective, Freeman is beneath contract till the top of the 2027 season, when he will likely be 38. In distinction, Olson is beneath contract for 2 additional years and can hit free company at 35.
Benefit: Olson
Is Freddie Freeman nonetheless an elite first-baseman who offers you high-level manufacturing within the fast future? Completely, no query about it. He’s nonetheless among the best gamers at his place proper now and can go down as among the best gamers of his era. That stated, his age, mixed with the facility upside that Olson offers and the additional years he has, give Freeman’s substitute in Atlanta the sting on this one.
Verdict: Matt Olson (However Freddie Freeman remains to be REALLY good)
One Tier Down: Michael Busch vs. Triston Casas
Full disclosure: I wasn’t planning on writing about this matchup. Once I initially outlined this piece, Spencer Torkelson was listed instead of Michael Busch. On paper, it doesn’t seem to be a lot of a comparability. Casas is youthful, has carried out within the majors for longer, and has change into a key a part of a contending franchise. At first, I had the identical practice of thought, then realized that Busch was in an analogous place. He’s change into a key a part of the Cubs’ plans, and was a Rookie of the Yr candidate in his first season within the majors, albeit at 26 years outdated. This line of considering was confirmed whereas researching and forming my opinion. I found that Busch and Casas put up almost similar numbers in 2024.
It’s essential to notice the “video games performed” column, as Casas missed a number of months attributable to a rib damage. Busch was a mainstay within the Chicago lineup, and his manufacturing was one of many causes that the Cubs remained aggressive all through the summer time. Whereas that’s spectacular, it could be unfair to ding Casas due to an damage, particularly after he proved he can deal with a season-long workload in 2023.
You could be considering: “Their season numbers are related, so what? I wager the Statcast knowledge exhibits one is best than the opposite.” I believed that too, and was as soon as once more struck by the similarities.
Casas tops Busch’s power-indicating numbers, particularly in bat velocity, barrel fee, and hard-hit fee. This disparity materialized on the sphere, with Casas hitting a homer as soon as in each 18.69 at-bats, in comparison with Busch’s 26.76 mark. Casas was on tempo to hit 30 residence runs if he had been given the identical quantity of at-bats as his counterpart. Nonetheless, Busch almost sweeps the plate self-discipline numbers, indicating there’s room for development from his .335 OBP final season.
As I acknowledged above, energy is a extra helpful trait to own in fantasy for my part, and Casas has loads of it. Their plate self-discipline stats are solely separated by a few share factors, and Casas’ 2023 numbers in that space had been on the similar degree as Busch’s. As a consequence of these information, I lean in the direction of Casas due to the upper energy ceiling and the dearth of drop-off in OBP.
One trait that Busch possesses that Casas doesn’t is defensive versatility. The 27-year-old infielder has hung out at second base and third base for the Cubs, albeit briefly, and performed within the outfield for the Dodgers. Casas hasn’t performed some other place since 2019 in Excessive-A, the place he made eight appearances at third base. Busch represents a defensive choice in a number of positions for Chicago, which will increase his worth with the group. Neither participant is a legal responsibility with the glove, however neither graded out extremely both (Casas: -1 FRV, Busch: 1 FRV). Their gloves ought to be adequate to maintain each within the lineup. Nonetheless, ought to the Cubs make some extra strikes that pressure Busch out of his common spot, the multi-positional eligibility he could possess may very well be an element to keep watch over for fantasy managers.
Busch and Casas have their justifiable share of variations. One is considerably older than the opposite (Busch: 27, Casas 24). They don’t match up bodily, with Casas having a four-inch and 30-pound benefit. Each took very completely different routes to the majors, as Casas was referred to as up at 22 whereas Busch needed to wait till his age-26 season. Regardless of the variations, there’s one main similarity: each gamers are going to be essential components of their groups’ success in 2025.
Their groups enter 2025 in near-identical conditions. Each the Crimson Sox and the Cubs ended the season on a bitter word, as each fanbases had been left upset by the dearth of playoff baseball in October. Nonetheless, the 2 historic franchises boast rosters stuffed with younger expertise and will make the leap again into competition subsequent season. Casas and Busch (as issues stand) will each open the season at first base for his or her respective groups and can seemingly be integral contributors to the success or failure of their organizations.
So, who wins? I hate to be boring, but it surely’s the participant you in all probability thought was going to win this matchup earlier than studying it. Busch and Casas are almost similar statistically, and each will likely be good, mid-tier, choices to pursue for those who want a primary baseman subsequent season. Nonetheless, Casas’ energy ceiling and youth make him the extra interesting choice to me.
Verdict: Casas (However it’s nearer than you’d assume)
The Subsequent Wave: Xavier Isaac vs. Nick Kurtz
Attempting to decide on two first basemen within the minor leagues who may change into future stars on the MLB degree was like attempting to determine between your favourite youngsters. For days I went backwards and forwards, contemplating gamers like Jac Caglianone, Bryce Eldridge and Ralphy Velasquez. At one level, I even thought of discussing Tre’ Morgan. Nonetheless, in the long run, I made a decision on his Rays’ organizational teammate, Xavier Isaac, and Nick Kurtz. Why? As a result of I believe each may make an affect on their main league rosters by the top of 2025.
Regardless of each being 21 and their related bodily builds (Isaac: 6’3″/240, Kurtz: 6’5″/240), the 2 prospects have taken very completely different paths to skilled baseball. Each had been first-round picks, however Isaac was drafted in 2022 at choose 29 out of highschool, whereas Kurtz spent three years within the ACC with Wake Forest earlier than being drafted #4 total this 12 months. Now, the 2 gamers are separated by simply 9 spots within the MLB’s high 100 prospects checklist and are #3 and #4 at their place.
Attempting to check their common season stats can be counterintuitive, as Kurtz has solely performed 12 video games within the minor leagues in comparison with Isaac’s 102 in 2024. Nonetheless, each gamers hung out within the Arizona Fall League, so we’ll use that for now.
There’s not a lot in it, and it’s a really small pattern measurement, however primarily based on the ends in degree competitors, you must give the sting to Nick Kurtz, at the least primarily based on the information pattern right here. Clearly, this doesn’t inform the entire story or function any kind of indicator of future success, but it surely’s a very good place to start out.
MLB.com and Fangraphs appear to agree. Each give Kurtz a slight edge with regards to his hit software, which is per the AFL outcomes. The one space that Isaac has the benefit is within the energy grades, which he’s demonstrated all through his profession within the minor leagues. He mashed 19 homers in 2023 and adopted that up with one other 18 this season. Isaac struggled in his first style of AA ball this season, however nonetheless added three homers in 31 video games. Kurtz additionally briefly reached AA this season, however a five-game pattern isn’t sufficient to look at, regardless of a stable 129 wRC+.
In my dialogue concerning Freeman/Olson, I made an enormous deal about valuing energy instruments over persistence with regards to fantasy baseball. Nonetheless, each gamers in that comparability had been above common in each fields. That’s not the case right here. Isaac’s strikeout fee raises some considerations, as he struck out 33% of the time this season, together with a mark above 40% at AA to finish the season. Kurtz, alternatively, registered three collegiate seasons with extra walks than strikeouts and continued that sample in his first style of MiLB motion (12 BB, 10 Okay). Each gamers have the potential to be main energy hitters, however as soon as once more, the benefit goes to Kurtz attributable to his eye on the plate.
In Tampa, Yandy Díaz is 33 and registered his worst marks in all 5 fantasy baseball classes since 2021. He’ll break camp because the membership’s starter at first, however the Rays could have one eye on the longer term, who completed the season in AA this 12 months and is poised for a breakout 12 months in 2025. For the A’s, the youth motion has began. Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, and Zack Gelof have all laid declare to spots on the roster. They’ve additionally added veteran pitching in Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, making for an attention-grabbing roster to keep watch over. Tyler Soderstrom has been good for the A’s in restricted time in MLB, however will he block the previous #4 total choose from making a debut if the state of affairs warrants it? Most likely not.
There’s a transparent pathway for each gamers to interrupt into the foremost leagues this season. Each golf equipment have holes at first base that they might treatment with an in-house repair. Nonetheless, when wanting on the two of them side-by-side, there’s a transparent winner for my part primarily based on the all-around profile that he possesses.
Verdict: Kurtz
Picture by: Doug Carlin
