After protecting troublesome hold/lower choices on the infield positions the previous few weeks, the RotoGraphs Ottoneu staff will flip our consideration to the outfield this week (and presumably subsequent week too). Listed here are 5 guys on my hold/lower bubble.
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Michael Harris II, OFSalary: $27Average Wage: $182024 P/G: 4.55Projected 2025 P/G: 6.02
Michael Harris’ struggles in his third huge league season had been all the results of the hamstring harm that value him two months of the season, proper? If you break up his season pre-injury and post-injury, issues don’t actually line up with that narrative. Earlier than he hit the IL, he was posting a relatively disappointing .250/.295/.358 slash line, good for an 80 wRC+ with a very conspicuous absence of energy. After he returned from his harm, he was much more productive on the plate, slashing .283/.318/.506 (125 wRC+) however stole simply two bases by way of the top of the season.
Beneath the hood, the whole lot appeared proper in keeping with the norms he had established for himself by way of the primary two seasons of his profession. His laborious hit price, barrel price, xwOBA, and wOBA had been all properly above league common and his aggressive excessive contact strategy on the plate remained intact. It wasn’t simply easy unhealthy luck both, although his BABIP did fall 34 factors from 2023; his BABIP was almost precisely the identical earlier than and after his hamstring harm. The one factor I can see is a batted ball combine that was a little bit out of whack early within the season; his groundball price was over 53% by way of mid-June and his pull price was almost 10 factors greater than what it was the yr prior. Each of these metrics got here again down in direction of his norms in August and September and his outcomes on balls in play benefitted.
After which there’s his Steamer projection for 2025. The pc is enamoured along with his potential to breakout subsequent yr and ZiPS shares within the optimism. Harris will flip 24 underneath a month earlier than Opening Day and apparently his rebound through the second half of this season was sufficient to persuade the computer systems that his struggles through the first half had been only a mirage.
Hold or lower?
I’m holding Harris at $27 (or I might have if I hadn’t simply traded him away in that league for a $43 Corbin Carroll). Nonetheless, that looks like a ceiling for him. It assumes the projections are proper and that he’s due for a big enchancment in 2025, nevertheless it doesn’t go away a lot room for him to supply a lot surplus worth if that enchancment involves fruition.
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Luis Robert Jr., OFSalary: $29Average Wage: $282024 P/G: 4.03Projected 2025 P/G: 5.07
A hip harm sustained in early April sidelined Luis Robert Jr. for 2 months of the season and he by no means actually recovered as soon as he returned to the sphere. Between the harm, the fixed commerce rumors, and the traditionally unhealthy staff surrounding him, it was a depressing yr for Robert. His strikeout price spiked to 33.2% and his energy output dipped to only a .155 ISO as he limped to a career-worst 84 wRC+.
There’s definitely some trigger for concern when his peripherals. His laborious hit price dipped barely however his barrel price fell by greater than 5 factors. That tells me that his general high quality of contact was intact however one thing else in his batted ball combine was resulting in a decrease energy output. Certainly, his pull price fell almost 13 factors, all the way down to 34%. Within the two seasons the place his pull price has been greater than 40%, Robert has posted wRC+s of 155 (43.1% pull price) and 128 (46.8%); in his different three seasons within the majors with a pull price underneath 40%, his wRC+ has been 111 or decrease.
After which there’s his plate self-discipline points. He’s at all times been an aggressive swinger, however the quantity of harm he was able to doing on contact helped him offset a few of these strikeout points. Properly, he lower his general swing price by greater than 5 factors however his contact price continued a two-year downward development so the outcome was much more referred to as strikes and an almost 5 level bounce in strikeout price.
Truthfully, between the lackluster season in 2024, the harm points, and the crimson flags in each his batted ball and plate self-discipline peripherals, it’s agonizingly troublesome to guage Robert. We all know that when the whole lot clicks and he’s firing on all cylinders, he is usually a phenomenal offensive producer, however the inconsistency will kill you. His 2025 projection isn’t very rosy both.
Hold or lower?
I’m slicing at $29 and I’d lower all the way in which all the way down to round $15. Except he’s traded to a a lot better staff surroundings this offseason, I’m avoiding him wherever I can.
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Spencer Steer, 1B/OFSalary: $8, $14, $18Average Wage: $122024 P/G: 4.66Projected 2025 P/G: 5.02
I actually cherished Spencer Steer for his multi-positional eligibility which is why I rostered him wherever I might. Now that he’s misplaced 2B and 3B eligibility, I’ve bought to determine the way to consider him as an OF with a little bit of flexibility at 1B. The participant pool at his new place isn’t as shallow because it was at 2B and even 3B however it may be tough to roster 5 dependable outfielders to fill all 5 of these lineup spots in Ottoneu. He’s misplaced a little bit of worth by merely going from 4 eligible positions down to 2, however not as a lot as I believe you’d count on.
As for his precise on-field manufacturing, 2024 was a little bit of a bizarre yr for him. All the things in his peripherals appeared secure; his batted ball knowledge was strong and his plate self-discipline even barely improved. Regardless of all that, his wOBA fell from .355 to .316 because of a 58 level drop in BABIP. There’s nothing amiss along with his batted ball knowledge or his plate strategy — it actually looks like he was simply the sufferer of quaint unhealthy luck.
The projections don’t see his BABIP returning to his 2023 ranges and nor ought to they; he isn’t very quick and he elevates an excessive amount of of his contact to benefit from a excessive line drive price. A BABIP just under league common is a reasonably good guess to make and that’s precisely the place the pc pegs him.
Hold or lower?
I’m glad to maintain him as much as $15 or $16 I believe. $18 might be too excessive, particularly with out the positional flexibility that made him so invaluable the previous few years.
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Nolan Jones, OFSalary: $10Average Wage: $92024 P/G: 3.16Projected 2025 P/G: 4.97
Are you keen to pay for a breakout that’s now two years eliminated? That’s the central query surrounding Nolan Jones. His season in 2024 was marred by a recurring again harm and he had loads of points reproducing his excellent season from ‘23 when he was on the sphere. His laborious hit price really elevated by three and half factors however his energy manufacturing cratered regardless of all of the laborious contact. It’s not laborious to determine what occurred both; his groundball price jumped nearly 10 factors and his pull price fell by greater than 10 factors. That’s a severely unhealthy mixture for an influence hitter.
Assuming he’s wholesome in 2025, it’s troublesome to know what to anticipate from Jones. The projection primarily splits the distinction between his breakout season and harm marred season. We may be fairly assured that his .401 BABIP from 2023 gained’t occur once more however his energy positive aspects all appeared reliable. If he can determine the way to begin pulling and elevating his contact once more, his house ballpark and improbable contact high quality give him a reasonably excessive ceiling. There are a variety of “ifs” that have to go proper for his 2025 season to achieve success, making the danger fairly excessive if you happen to choose to maintain him.
Hold or lower?
I believe I’m high-quality with holding at $10 however no greater. That looks like a good worth to pay for the potential that he’s wholesome and figures out all his batted ball points. It’s additionally low cost sufficient that he turns into a simple lower if his 2023 breakout seems to be only a flash within the pan.
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Matt Wallner, OFSalary: $4 (x2)Common Wage: $62024 P/G: 5.36Projected 2025 P/G: 4.90
Chad requested me to incorporate Wallner right here as a result of I simply acquired him in considered one of our shared leagues in change for Jazz Chisholm Jr. I perceive the hesitation surrounding him. He’s bought an especially risky profile stuffed with strikeouts and tons of energy. The highs might be glorious — just like the 169 wRC+ he posted from July 7 by way of the top of the season — however the lows will seemingly be unplayable. To make issues extra difficult, he’s prone to be platooned closely since he’s completely atrocious towards left-handed pitching. Fortunately, he’s on the robust facet of the platoon, however a part-time participant is a bit more troublesome to roster.
However let’s take a look at what he’s able to. The 169 wRC+ over the ultimate three months of the season was improbable, however that got here with a .410 BABIP and a 34.2% strikeout price. What he does have going for him is outrageously good contact high quality. His laborious hit and barrel charges, xwOBA, and max exit velocity all sat within the high 5% within the majors. He could not make a lot contact, however when he does, ball go far.
Hold or lower?
I don’t need to overhype a participant as a result of the crimson flags in Wallner’s profile are definitely obvious, however he’s bought a variety of prime Joey Gallo in him and he was an extremely invaluable participant in Ottoneu for a very long time. I’m glad to maintain at $4 on the prospect that Wallner really does flip into the second coming of Gallo, however even when he settles in as a lesser model of Gallo, that’s nonetheless a invaluable participant in a format that rewards energy and endurance. The ceiling is a bit trickier to find out however I believe I’d hold Wallner as much as $6 or $7 and there’s in all probability an excellent probability he’ll go for much more at public sale.