2024 Braves Season in Review: Dylan Lee

I’ve all the time loved the Mount Rushmore questions that pop up throughout MLB fandom. If somebody asks me, “Who’s in your Mount Rushmore of all-time Braves,” I can count on a spirited debate on which three gamers most should have their heads carved alongside Hank Aaron’s ought to South Dakota resolve to vary the topic of their commemorative landmark from “American Legends” to “the Atlanta Braves franchise.”

Earlier than you soar to conclusions: no, even because the premier Dylan Lee fan, I’d clearly not put him in my Mount Rushmore of all-time Braves. Perhaps my Mount Rushmore of Braves gamers rated by stage of affection I’ve for them divided by star energy, however not of all-time Braves.

Nevertheless, I’ve considered one other landmark-related query wherein Dylan Lee might conceivably be an accurate reply: “What are the seven wonders of the baseball world?” There are many enjoyable choices on the market. Shohei Ohtani’s two-way prowess. The freakish motion on Devin Williams’s airbender. Giancarlo Stanton’s uncooked energy. The time capsules referred to as Wrigley Area and Fenway Park. However, in the event you had been asking me personally, I couldn’t assist however embody Dylan Lee’s inexplicable means to make good hitters look completely horrible.

How acquired

Drafted by Miami within the tenth spherical of the 2016 MLB Draft, Lee pitched in components of 4 minor league seasons for his or her minor league groups and was launched in the direction of the tip of Spring Coaching 2021; the Braves scooped him up a number of weeks later. He pitched for Gwinnett for practically that complete season, had the loopy first-career-start-is-in-a-World-Collection-game factor, after which spent most of 2022-2024 within the main league bullpen, with some stints in Gwinnett as a result of he, in contrast to most of his reliever teammates, nonetheless had possibility years remaining.

What had been the expectations?

Lee was unbelievable in 2022 in his first full yr as a significant league reliever: 1.1 fWAR, and a crazy-good 52 ERA-/69 FIP-/78 xFIP- line. 2023, although, ended up being a misplaced season for him, for a bunch of causes. The obvious one was that he missed a lot of the yr with shoulder irritation, which arguably made him much less efficient even when he was wholesome. However, he was additionally used unusually, given “pitch till you’ll be able to’t” lengthy aid stints regardless of his elite-level aid work in 2022, which additionally could have contributed to the shoulder irritation. Because of this, he adopted up that implausible full season with 0.0 fWAR and a weak 95/104/93 line throughout simply 23 1⁄3 innings.

Expectations for Lee, then, form of hinged on whether or not his shoulder would proceed to bark. He clearly had the power to offer stupendous aid, however he additionally had the “means” to get misused and falter if he wasn’t really feel all that nice, neither of that are actually his fault. These types of issues will not be actually the sorts of issues projection methods try to resolve, however ZiPS nonetheless thought extremely of him, giving him a degree estimate of 0.7 WAR in 48 innings — fairly paying homage to his 2022 and solely considerably tamped down by his misplaced season in 2023.

2024 Outcomes

The nice information? Mainly, 2022 Lee returned, in full and in earnest, placing his shoulder woes behind him. He notched 0.8 fWAR throughout 59 2⁄3 innings, with a 51/76/78 line nearly equivalent to his 52/69/78 line from 2022. Mainly, a number of extra homers with the identical fly ball price had been the distinction; his SIERA and xERA had been additionally freakishly shut to 1 one other. Actually, his 2022 and 2024 had been so comparable that it appears extra like a glitch within the matrix than a single human reliever doing nearly precisely the identical factor in two totally different years.

One bizarre factor about his season: Lee had deceptive reverse splits in 2024. Left-handed hitters produced a comparatively sturdy .754 OPS off him, and he held righties to a .597 OPS. Nevertheless, he had an outrageous 39.7 % Okay%-BB% in opposition to lefties, in comparison with a 17.3 % mark in opposition to righties. How did that occur, precisely? Two predominant causes: an enormous discrepancy in BABIP (.250 BABIP vs. RHH, .409 vs. LHH) and an enormous discrepancy within the share of fly balls that went out of the ballpark (8.4 % HR/FB vs. RHH, 15.8 % vs. LHH). Perhaps you shouldn’t simply chalk that as much as complete randomness and name it a day, however you additionally might, and you must count on the batted ball outcomes by handedness to even up a bit subsequent season. For his profession on the entire, Lee has been stable vs. righties and distinctive vs. lefties – I’d count on that to be the case going ahead.

What went proper?

Let’s get again to that making-good-hitters-look horrible factor, in a roundabout means.

There have been 169 certified relievers in 2024. Lee ranked 122nd in Stuff+. His common fastball velocity ranked 138th. By horizontal motion, his slider moved 4.6 inches lower than the common slider at an identical velocity. By vertical motion, his slider moved 2.7 inches lower than the league common slider at an identical velocity. His changeup has equally poor motion in comparison with the remainder of the league, with 4.6 inches much less horizontally and 1.7 inches much less vertically than the common changeup at an identical velocity.

Dylan Lee’s stuff, on the floor and even a bit beneath the floor, is underwhelming. Simply don’t inform that to MLB hitters.

Lee’s proclivity for producing horrible plate self-discipline from hitters is sort of unmatched. There have been solely two certified RP in 2024 to rank within the prime 5 in O-Swing%, CSW%, and SwStr%. One was Minnesota’s Griffin Jax, who had a 2.03 ERA and 1.94 FIP for the Twins whereas posting the 2nd highest fWAR in MLB amongst relievers. The opposite was Dylan Lee.

All of this from a man who was launched by the Marlins a number of seasons again.

2024 isn’t an outlier for Lee, both. FanGraphs began monitoring plate self-discipline metrics in 2002, and since then there have been 1,821 pitchers to log no less than 100 innings in MLB. Amongst these 1,821 pitchers, Dylan Lee ranks first in O-Swing% and is tied for second in SwStr%. That’s proper, Dylan Lee – the identical Dylan Lee who doesn’t throw a single pitch that isn’t below-average by both velocity or motion or each – is kind of actually the best pitcher on report at getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. As for the proportion of pitches thrown that lead to whiffs, he’s simply behind Josh Hader and sitting side-by-side with Eric Gagne and Edwin Díaz.

When it comes to the outcomes that come after the plate self-discipline metrics, Lee’s 2024 was nonetheless particular. He had a 31.7% Okay, 7.1% BB, 2.11 ERA, 2.62 xERA, and three.00 FIP in a career-high 59 2⁄3 IP. He had simply 9 holds and two blown saves, which displays on the truth that Brian Snitker nonetheless hasn’t absolutely taken to trusting him in large spots – Lee ranked seventh on the Braves in batters confronted in high-leverage on the Braves, and had the third most batters confronted in low-leverage. He was typically used for a number of innings, going additional than one inning on 14 events and reaching no less than two innings pitched in 9 outings. Nonetheless, he completed with a 11/5 shutdown/meltdown ratio, so yay for that.

Exactly as a result of Lee wasn’t utilized in significant leverage all that a lot, his highest WPA recreation of the yr truly got here not solely in a loss, however in a recreation the place he entered whereas trailing. Again on April 21, Lee entered after Darius Vines surrendered a leadoff double to begin the sixth. He ended that inning by getting two outs and having the runner thrown out making an attempt to steal third, after which labored one other inning that featured a second caught stealing and extra outs, regardless of two singles and a stroll within the course of. And, that was it, actually, for some purpose — regardless of having a-basically elite reliever of their bullpen, the Braves didn’t actually act as such. Right here’s his highest single WPA play of the season, which too was finally meaningless as a result of he ended up giving up two runs in that body:

What went mistaken?

Basically, nothing, however we do want to speak about leverage a bit. Lee’s ERA- on the season was second solely to that of Raisel Iglesias. His FIP- wasn’t significantly particular attributable to these additional homers, however his xFIP- was second solely to a fellow uncared for lefty, Aaron Bummer. Nevertheless, six relievers, together with Daysbel Hernandez, entered the sport in increased common leverage than Lee. His gmLI, which displays the common leverage he entered into when making an look, was under 1.00, i.e., his common utilization was in lower-than-average leverage.

Lee’s worst WPA recreation got here early within the season. The Braves had simply let Charlie Morton blow a four-run lead throughout three innings wherein the Marlins scored; they lastly summoned Lee to face lefty-hitting Nick Gordon, after which this occurred. Oops.

(After all, the Braves got here again to win this recreation in miraculous vogue.)

2025 Outlook

Whereas Lee’s 2024 was very good, there’s each purpose to consider that he’s able to bettering on his peripherals and possibly even doing the reverse factor, i.e., posting peripherals in 2025 that extra intently align together with his ERA from 2024. The one “certified” relievers in 2024 to submit no less than a 37% O-Swing, 32% CSW, and 17% SwStr had been Lee, Jax, Hader, and Mason Miller. Try how they every fared in Okay-BB%:

(In case you are on a cellular system, this desk is greatest considered in panorama mode.)

Lee’s Okay-BB% was considerably decrease than his friends with comparable inputs. It is perhaps that he wasn’t as sturdy at placing away hitters as soon as he reached two strikes, however it’s been confirmed that Put Away Fee (PAR) isn’t sticky yr to yr, so Lee might completely expertise some constructive regression on that entrance.

It’s bold, however my daring prediction is that we’ll see an excellent higher model of Dylan Lee in 2025. Not by ERA, essentially, however by Okay-BB% (and subsequently FIP and doubtlessly xERA). Nevertheless, even when he doesn’t enhance, Lee ought to completely be trusted as one of many prime choices to arrange nearer Raisel Iglesias. Whether or not he can be, although stays to be seen.

All that apart, ZiPS tasks him to have one other glorious, 0.8 WAR aid season; Steamer, however, sees him extra as a generic reliever (which possibly agrees with how the Braves have handled him as effectively).