In 2023, I landed a career-best three out of my 10 Daring Predictions, together with a daring Isaac Paredes prediction wherein I mentioned he’d hit .250 and 30 homers, and he went on to hit .250 with 31 homers. So I had the wind in my sails coming into 2024, regardless of being the one author that really continued the Daring Predictions collection. I assume I didn’t get the memo… or extra probably that I obtained it and put it below “Learn Later” after which forgot about it.
Anyway, I’m maybe burying the lede in the truth that this yr, my predictions had been extra fallacious than any of my years of Daring Predictions in years previous. So I actually didn’t have to jot down this, since I didn’t have some other Daring Predictions Writers to strain me with their post-mortems. However I can’t disguise my disgrace! Additionally, I did win just a few leagues this yr, together with my house league and my TGFBI 15-teamer, which helps alleviate the burn. However let’s see if we are able to be taught something.
1. CJ Abrams outproduces Trea Turner
Early within the yr, this appeared like my most good prediction. Turner obtained off to a mediocre begin after which had an prolonged stint on the IL, whereas Abrams tore the duvet off the ball in April and Could. Ultimately, although, Abrams fell aside, even ending the season with a demotion after a late night time on the on line casino. Goes to indicate that predicting enchancment based mostly on age alone can backfire, although on this case, I do marvel if maturity points or damage factored in as a result of Abrams’ shocking ineptitude on the basepaths.
Nonetheless, with a season line of .246 with 20 homers, 65 RBI, 79 R, and 31 SB (12 CS), he was hardly a bust. However Turner as soon as once more excelled with 20+ homers for the fourth straight yr, with a .295 AVG to go along with 21 HR, 19 SB, 62 RBI and 88 R to beat him out. Nevertheless it was nearer than you’ll have anticipated given the tip of the season, with Turner rating on the Razzball participant rater because the #42 total participant and Abrams nonetheless ending at #63. If Abrams even stole 10 extra bases, he most likely would’ve matched him, and given his prowess final yr, and the very fact his dash pace hardly dropped off in any respect (weirdly, his time to first, which is extra indicative of SB success, did drop some).
I nonetheless suppose that is one that would occur subsequent yr and I used to be only a yr too early, as Turner’s declining SB output makes him a strong however not elite fantasy participant, and I feel that Abrams’ stolen base struggles this yr was probably extra psychological, because the uncooked pace was nonetheless there and the Nationals despatched Jesse Winker racking up double digits baggage so clearly it’s not because of the crew being conservative. However as for this yr, I feel it’s protected to say that this began effectively however took a Trea Flip for the more serious.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 1
2. Will Smith is just not a High 10 fantasy catcher
Nicely, it did have a look at one level in August that I’d win this one, but it surely seems it’s fairly laborious to seek out 10 good catchers. Nonetheless, in case you had learn this prediction in March and determined to not draft Smith at his ADP within the High 100, you’ll’ve benefited. Ultimately, he had the worst full season of his profession, hitting .248/.327/.433 with 20 HR and a career-high 105 Ks in 476 ABs… however sadly the quantity alone helped rank him seventh amongst catchers.
Certain, it’s nonetheless a good distance from the pre-draft rank of fourth. However my issues that the barrel fee, which dipped in 2023, won’t totally recuperate had been fallacious as his 2024 barrel fee recovered. It appears the strikeout to stroll ratio did endure a bit, however his peripherals remained fairly constant. Nevertheless it’s true that he didn’t hit 500 AB, as I discussed folks weren’t factoring within the Ohtani and Teoscar taking on DH giving him fewer alternatives on relaxation days. This might’ve come true if among the upstart catchers like Langeliers, Tyler Stephenson, Austin Wells and others didn’t fade down the stretch, and possibly additionally if David Fry didn’t get harm. Oh effectively.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for two
3. Nelson Velázquez outproduces Nick Castellanos
Nicely, if this had been two predictions, A. that Velazquez will outperform his ADP and that B. Castellanos will underperform ADP, then I’d be 50% right. However we each comprehend it doesn’t work like that. Castellanos did certainly have a down yr by his requirements, following up a 2023 marketing campaign wherein he hit .272 with 27 HR, 11 SB, and 106 RBI with a 2024 stint wherein he hit .254 with 23 HR, 6 SB, and 86 RBIs. Nonetheless, he stayed wholesome and it was not less than strong manufacturing, although a line some preseason projections of Nelson might’ve matched.
However like, what occurred to Nelson Velazquez? Maybe the crew noticed one thing they didn’t like early as they didn’t wish to decide to him, or possibly the nerves about his function made him press, however he pale quick after a sizzling begin, hitting simply .200 with eight HRs and two SBs in 205 AB. I had assumed it should be his strikeout fee ballooned, however actually that really improved, however the batted ball high quality nosedived. I knew his 2023 21% Barrel% was unsustainable, however I nonetheless anticipated higher than 9%. I nonetheless suppose it’s potential damage performed a task, however in any case, he was a mid-round bust, and I’m glad I jumped ship early once I noticed his scary peripherals.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 3
4. Tanner Bibee is just not a High-40 starter
Nicely, he nonetheless didn’t really feel like a High-40 starter, not less than at occasions. However in accordance with the ESPN Participant Rater, he clocked in as pitcher #32, although given his preseason ADP of 116, you most likely would’ve been higher off rolling the cube on just a few of the fellows forward of him like Seth Lugo, Tanner Houck and Ronel Blanco. My largest concern for Bibee was his lack of an excellent fastball and having extra management than command, however he did enhance on that in his second season, with an improved 26% Okay% and a 6% BB%. He additionally positioned his changeup and cutter on reverse sides of the plate extra successfully, although he by no means appeared dominant.
Along with my miss although, I severely underestimated his supporting solid of the Guardians as I had severe issues concerning the depth of their offense. However a resurgence of Steven Kwan with a profession yr for a few of their high hitters helped make up for the at-bats wasted on Brayan Rocchio, Ramon Laureano, and the like. On Nick’s Preseason High 100, Bibee clocks in at #36, in order that isn’t an out both. In any case, I wouldn’t need this to be my solely right prediction as IMO it wasn’t daring sufficient from the beginning.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 4
5. Jake Burger hits .250 with 40 homers
If solely August lasted all yr, proper? I did handle to get proper the half the place he hits .250, as he really has managed to hit precisely .250 for 3 straight years. Neglect Khris Davis, we are able to name Burger the Quarter Pounder!
However alas, he solely hit 29 house runs, as his homer swing was virtually nonexistent within the first half. It additionally most likely didn’t assist that the offense as a complete was significantly weaker this yr, but it surely appears he additionally had a drop-off from his monstrous uncooked energy he flashed in 2023 to one thing nonetheless fairly robust (116 maxEV) however with fewer barrels.
Nonetheless, given the very fact he’s lowered his Okay fee for a 3rd straight season, I don’t suppose we’re giving sufficient credence to the concept that subsequent yr he places the 2 collectively and has an Austin Riley-esque breakout… if solely he might discover a new crew.
UPDATE: Actually 12 hours after penning this, he has now signed with the Rangers. Get your Onion and BBQ as a result of it’s Cowboy Burger time!
VERDICT: MISS 0 for five
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is just not a top-25 outfielder
Nicely, I’m pleased for him, however yeah this prediction doesn’t look good in any respect. In his age-26 season, Chisholm had his healthiest season so far, racking up 562 AB (621 PA) whereas hitting .256 with 24 HR and 40 SB. What’s extra, is he utterly reversed the pattern of his rising strikeout fee, as he put up a career-best 25% whereas sustaining a strong 9% BB%, which helped him get on base extra to let his legs driving up his statline. In accordance with the Razzball Participant Rater (I ditched ESPN after seeing how poorly they valued Chisholm’s SBs), he rated because the eighth-best outfielder, and Thirty third-best participant total (together with pitchers).
I don’t actually know if this was a failure in course of because you sometimes can’t predict a participant goes to utterly reverse a multi-year statistical pattern (strikeout fee) except the excessive strikeout fee was brought on by poor well being. Then once more, I had, previous to selecting writing about Jazz, contemplated writing in Royce Lewis as a substitute of Jazz because the potential bust for related well being issues (and loopy excessive ADP), and that one would’ve seemed clever. However I assume it’s a reminder to not weigh previous accidents too closely.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for six
7. Tigers win the AL Central
Let me have this one, on a technicality, please? Okay, we all know they didn’t really win the AL Central (that might be the Guardians, who had been 6.5 video games forward), however they did handle to beat Houston within the playoffs and nearly beat the Guardians within the playoffs. This prediction did look hilariously fallacious for a lot of the season (with me wishing I picked the Royals as a substitute) earlier than the Tigers’ insane end-of-season rally.
Most of their success could possibly be attributed to their pitching, Cy Younger winner Tarik Skubal, a profitable reclamation in Jack Flaherty, and a number of other different strong arms. Sadly, not solely did they commerce Flaherty away on the deadline (I don’t blame them), however lots of their hitters disenchanted, particularly Spencer Torkelson and lots of their different younger expertise like Parker Meadows and Colt Keith floundered early. They’ll nonetheless be an thrilling crew to look at this yr with some elite younger expertise anticipated to play subsequent yr, although, and it was a really enjoyable story.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 7
8. Rowdy Tellez finishes as a High-20 1st baseman
I actually remorse being so optimistic on this one, as Tellez managed a second straight season with simply 13 homers, regardless of hitting a MaxEV of 117 mph. Granted, he not less than improved from his terrible 2023, and hit .243 this yr and 13 house runs in 383 AB means he could have been helpful in deep leagues for brief spells. However even with the trainwreck of a place at 1B this yr, Tellez nonetheless solely got here in at #34 on the chilly nook.
It appears I could have targeted an excessive amount of on the uncooked energy mixed with the low strikeout fee, and have to focus extra on the truth that he has by no means been good at barreling the ball and placing that uncooked expertise to make use of constantly (see Willi Castro). Given his physique kind doesn’t age effectively anyway, I’m not going again to the Wellez on this one.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 8
9. FIVE rookies will steal 30+ bases
It looks like this one was proper, doesn’t it? Nevertheless it wasn’t. I imply, 17 gamers did steal 30 or extra bases, and lots of them had been sophomores (Elly, Turang, Duran, Carroll, Maikel Garcia, and so forth). However the one eligible rookie to hit the mark was Jacob Younger (31),. Even Zach Neto didn’t qualify as a rookie, and Jacksons Chourio and Merrill fell wanting that mark this yr (22 and 16 SB, respectively).
Stolen bases did proceed to extend, however maybe I underestimated simply what number of rookies can get sufficient taking part in time to make that stolen base whole a distant risk. Since, I imply, most rookies get call-ups midseason, and sometimes taking part in time and damage conditions make it such that they don’t begin all yr. I wouldn’t be shocked if 5 gamers who had been rookies this yr find yourself with a complete like this subsequent yr although.
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 9
10. Seth Brown outproduces Anthony Santander
Look, I needed to exit with a bang, didn’t I? Beneath, I present the chart that not less than defined by reasoning.
Barrel%
MaxEV
HardHit%
Contact%
O-Swing%
CSW%
xBA
xSLG
Seth Brown
12%
113 mph
47%
70%
35%
28%
.237
.451
Anthony Santander
10%
113 mph
46%
78%
38%
26%
.237
.426
There have been extra arguments to make it look much less dangerous, as I do understand the distinction between a 70% and a 78% Contact% isn’t any small distinction. Nicely, as we all know, Santander, regardless of nothing totally different in his peripherals apart from the bottom HardHit% in years, managed a career-high 44 homers with a .235 AVG. Didn’t see that one coming.
Brown, in the meantime, hit THIRTY fewer homers! He hit .231 with 14 homers over 400 PA, with the primary single-digit barrel fee of his profession and a dropoff in energy throughout the board. Maybe he’s only a short-peak type of participant, and I do additionally suppose I really want to cease repeating my mistake of getting too enthusiastic about fee stats from platoon gamers and forgetting it received’t simply extrapolate over a full season. Subsequent yr I promise my predictions received’t do worse (as a result of technically you may’t get lower than 0 right).
VERDICT: MISS 0 for 10
Photographs courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)
