Should the Atlanta Braves trade Drake Baldwin?

On the onset of the offseason, the Atlanta Braves appeared well-positioned to commerce their prized catching prospect, Drake Baldwin. That they had Sean Murphy underneath contract via at the very least 2028 as the first catcher and an $8M membership possibility on clubhouse favourite Travis d’Arnaud. Past that, Chadwick Tromp would nonetheless be ready in Triple-A ought to Murphy or d’Arnaud get injured throughout the season, so buying and selling Baldwin in the fitting deal wouldn’t damage an excessive amount of.

Nevertheless, issues modified when the Braves shocked many by declining d’Arnaud’s membership possibility. With d’Arnaud rejoining Ron Washington in Anaheim, the Braves roster as at present constructed will doubtless see Tromp because the backup catcher and Baldwin persevering with to play often in AAA as the first depth piece in case of harm.

The query of whether or not or to not commerce Drake Baldwin is carefully tied to your outlook on Sean Murphy. In his press convention following the Braves early exit within the playoffs, supervisor Brian Snitker talked about that the plan heading into this previous season was for Murphy to catch about 75% of the staff’s video games. Regardless of a hideous 2024 that included poor efficiency and a major harm, the Braves’ willingness to maneuver on from d’Arnaud alerts that they’re once more planning to depend on Murphy for the lion’s share of the enjoying time in 2025. Moreover, it might additionally sign that they’re assured in Baldwin’s MLB-readiness ought to Murphy falter.

Had Murphy’s 2024 resembled something like the remainder of his profession, this query can be simpler to reply. There can be no plans to take enjoying time away from a prime 5 catcher within the sport, so quite than relegating a prime prospect like Baldwin to AAA or a backup position, they might be extra liable to capitalize on the worth he inbuilt 2024 by utilizing him in a commerce to fill one other gap on the roster. Ought to depth be a priority, they may at all times signal a backup catcher to maintain Tromp in AAA, or signal one other minor-league depth possibility in the event that they wished to make use of Tromp because the backup in Atlanta. Nevertheless, with Murphy having posted a 78 wRC+ in 2024 and only a 70 wRC+ within the second half of 2023, some followers is likely to be reluctant to offer away what might be Murphy’s alternative if his latest stretch of poor efficiency is definitely an indication of decline quite than an aberration.

For those who’d prefer to be optimistic on Murphy, you’ll be able to definitely make a really reasoned and measured case for it. Coming into 2024, Murph had a profession 119 wRC+ and had by no means been under a 100 wRC+ in any of his 5 seasons on the huge league degree. His 78 wRC+ appears to be like like a statistical outlier, and it’s doable that you would clarify it away by tying the poor efficiency to his harm (by no means acquired his timing again, enjoying via discomfort, and many others.). And sure, he struggled within the second half of 2023, too, however you’ll be able to chalk most of that as much as terribly unhealthy luck. He had a .344 xwOBA within the second half of 2023 in comparison with only a .277 wOBA. For reference, there have been 14 different gamers with at the very least 100 PA and an xwOBA between .343 and .345 throughout the 2nd half of 2023, and their precise wOBAs ranged from .316 to .403. League common wOBA in 2023 was .318, so the worst consequence of the opposite 14 gamers who had comparable inputs to Murphy (walks, strikeouts, exit velocities and launch angles, and many others.) was a league common hitter. The very best consequence of that group was higher than what Marcell Ozuna did in 2024.

For those who’d prefer to be pessimistic on Murphy, you would level out the aforementioned horrible outcomes on the plate because the All-Star break of 2023. You can counter that it’s common for him to underperform his anticipated stats (profession .349 xwOBA vs. .330 wOBA). Crucially, you would additionally notice that his protection this previous season was subpar for his requirements, as he graded out as solely barely above common as a framer and his common pop time slipped down from the 86th percentile in 2023 to simply the 63rd percentile in 2024. (It’s price mentioning that he nonetheless graded out as an incredible blocker.)

Let’s look now at what the Braves stand to lose in the event that they commerce Baldwin.

In a season of principally darkish and tragic storylines for the Braves’ place gamers, Baldwin’s 2024 breakout was a vivid spot. The LHH catcher held his personal at Double-A Mississippi, posting a 96 wRC+ throughout 217 PA in a notoriously powerful ballpark to hit in, however then he exploded in Triple-A with a formidable 135 wRC+ over 334 PA. His plate self-discipline actually stands out – his 15.6% BB and 16.2% Ok each ranked comfortably within the prime 20 within the Worldwide League – however he additionally hits the ball with authority. Out of 312 gamers who recorded at the very least 250 plate appearances on the Triple-A degree, Baldwin ranked #1 amongst them in xwOBA. His 92.8 mph common exit velocity ranked 2nd and his 53.1% Exhausting-Hit charge ranked 4th. He even hit a 411 foot reverse discipline house run within the All-Star Futures Recreation. Briefly, he completely raked.

Whereas the bat appears very actual, Baldwin’s defensive profile behind the plate is a bit murkier. The final narrative from the oldsters at Battery Energy who comply with him carefully has been that he’s improved so much and appears to be a reliable possibility behind the plate on the big-league degree, however wouldn’t doubtless be a standout defensively. As evidenced by the William Contreras / Sean Murphy commerce, the Braves are extraordinarily specific relating to their catchers’ defensive talents. In the event that they don’t really feel assured in Baldwin’s defensive potential, they could choose to deal him.

If the Braves resolve that they’ll’t hand over a bat of Baldwin’s caliber, nonetheless, they could attempt to get artistic to be able to get his bat into the lineup – particularly since he hits from the left aspect. It’s doable that they take a look at him out in left discipline a bit throughout Spring Coaching, and maybe he’d discover a everlasting house there. There have additionally been a number of gamers over time who spent most of their time within the outfield whereas additionally catching 20+ video games a season (Kyle Schwarber, Daulton Varsho, and MJ Melendez to call a number of), and it’s not unimaginable to suppose that the Braves may look to make use of Baldwin in the same capability. They may additionally merely be affected person, go away him in Triple-A for many or all of 2025 and use him in a hybrid catcher/DH position in 2026 after Ozuna’s contract expires.

The totally different sources for prospect rankings usually are not but in settlement on Baldwin’s outlook. FanGraphs views him because the thirtieth finest prospect within the sport (third amongst catchers). Baseball America ranked him 77th (ninth amongst catchers). MLB Pipeline left him out of their most up-to-date prime 100 rankings. For those who’d prefer to take the typical there (assuming that Baldwin isn’t far outdoors the highest 100 by MLB Pipeline), you’d doubtless take a look at him as a prime 75ish prospect within the league. However, as they are saying, magnificence is within the eye of the beholder. The Braves have their very own perspective of how Baldwin stacks as much as the opposite prospects within the league, and so they’d need to discover a buying and selling companion who values him extra equally to FanGraphs than MLB Pipeline.

So, there it’s. Do you commerce Baldwin to a staff that’s on the lookout for a main catcher of the longer term and signal another backup/depth catcher for affordable? Do you maintain onto him in case Sean Murphy continues to wrestle? Do you take a look at him out within the outfield? The choice is lower than us, however the consequence of this ballot is. Select properly.