The shortstop plan for the 2024 Atlanta Braves was fairly easy. Orlando Arcia was going to be their defensive-first shortstop, who might bat on the backside of the lineup whereas the remaining eight hitters within the deepest lineup in baseball did what they do and coated him up. On paper, all of it labored. Sadly, when issues went from on paper to on the sector, issues didn’t go fairly to plan.
How acquired
The Braves acquired Arcia in April of 2021, in a uncommon early-season commerce with the Brewers. Milwaukee was in search of bullpen depth and have been eager about Patrick Weigel and Chad Sobotka; the Braves needed slightly extra infield depth with Arcia, who had fallen out of favor with the crew that had developed him, regardless of a 2020 season the place he began doing stuff extra akin to how the Braves deal with batting as a crew. The Braves, after all, didn’t want a beginning shortstop with Dansby Swanson firmly in place in an on a regular basis function however Arcia supplied positional depth and and fast assistance on the bench, and based mostly on his altering method from 2020, the Braves executed the commerce.
As soon as Swanson left after the 2022 season, the traditional knowledge was the Braves would have a look at purchase a starting-caliber shortstop and go away Arcia in a bench/back-up function. Media and followers each have been stunned, nonetheless, when come the tip of Spring Coaching 2023, Arcia was named the beginning shortstop, the place he’s been ever since.
What have been the expectations?
The issue for Arcia in his time with the Brewers was he simply couldn’t hit. Over his first 2,000 profession main league plate appearances, Arcia posted a .242/.293/.363 batting line, good for a 70 wRC+. He was, at instances (not 2019, although!) an unreal defender at shortstop, nice glove, robust arm, however he couldn’t hit a lick. It’s why he was accessible in commerce to start with, it’s why he was deemed a bench piece, and it’s why it was so stunning the Braves made him their beginning shortstop in 2023. And due to that, expectations again then couldn’t have been decrease.
After which one thing very unusual occurred. The 2023 season. Not solely did Orlando Arcia hit, he hit fairly nicely. In 533 plate appearances in 2023, Arcia posted a 100 wRC+ with 17 homers, which when added to strong protection at shortstop, makes for a pleasant participant to have. So good in truth, Arcia made the All-Star crew in 2023. He was hitting the ball tougher, added actual energy to his recreation, his anticipated numbers had actual juice behind them, and it started to appear to be the Braves had a first-class participant improvement success case on their arms. Some swing changes and a brand new method had unlocked a number of the potential that had as soon as made Arcia a top-25 prospect in baseball.
Although he severely pale down the stretch as a result of some method points, it was a lot much less stunning come 2024 that Arcia was penciled in because the beginning shortstop. ZiPS had him as possibly a hair beneath common coming into the 2024 season, which made sense provided that he was a bit above common in 2023 however outhit his xwOBA by a good bit.
2024 Outcomes
For all the progress that got here with the 2023 season, 2024 went the alternative manner. Arcia spent a big portion of the season being the worst hitter in all of Main League Baseball, posting a 56 wRC+ within the first half of the season, stacking one terrible at-bat after one other, and giving again all of the beneficial properties of the prior season. Arcia completed with a 72 wRC+ for the yr, mainly dead-on what he had accomplished all these seasons in Milwaukee, and questions concerning the Braves long-term solutions at shortstop have arisen as soon as once more.
The autumn again all the way down to earth was particularly pricey for the crew, which was coping with an amazing quantity of accidents and underperformances all around the lineup, and actually might’ve used a rock-solid yr from Arcia. As an alternative they bought near-replacement-level manufacturing, 0.8 fWAR in 157 video games began, from one of many recreation’s most necessary positions. Questions on whether or not Arcia must return to a bench function as he was initially acquired to do bought louder and louder.
Arcia as soon as once more performed fairly good shorstop protection, however the truth is that his 72 wRC+ got here with him outhitting his xwOBA once more (whereas most of his teammates didn’t), which is type of scary.
What went proper?
Not a lot. Arcia did catch the ball at shortstop, posting a +4 OAA (outs above common) for the second yr in a row, although his protection does get slightly overrated at instances. He had his share of misplays in 2024 and whereas his protection is actually nicely above common, it’s a full couple of ranges beneath the sport’s best possible and definitely wasn’t sufficient to cowl up his extreme offensive deficiencies.
The one different a part of Arcia’s recreation that you may say went nicely in 2024 was he did hit 17 HRs, tying his profession excessive from 2023. However even that comes with an asterisk, as his general slugging share dropped by nearly 70 factors from .420 in 2023 to .356 in 2024. Should you’re in search of extra of a constructive, Arcia did for essentially the most half preserve his batted ball profile from 2023. After a mean exit velocity of 88.2 mph in 2023, Arcia posted the very same quantity in 2024, 88.2 mph. His exhausting hit charge did drop from 41 % to 38 % and all of his anticipated numbers tanked fully however that’s hardly a shock.
Nonetheless, the season is lengthy, and most canine have their day. Arcia’s was April 17, by which he did the semi-rare feat of each tying and finally successful the sport within the late innings. He doubled within the second, reached on a dropped third strike within the fourth, flew out within the sixth, tied the sport with a sac fly within the eighth, and with two outs within the tenth, drove within the go-ahead run that finally stood up because the Braves received 5-4.
What went mistaken?
A humorous factor about that clip above — it type of outlined Arcia’s season. That game-winning bouncer was Arcia’s 68th PA of the yr, and thru these 68 PAs, he had a 165 wRC+, with a really excessive grounder charge and a really excessive pull charge. By way of these 68 PAs, Arcia had a hilarious .503 wOBA on a .195 xwOBA on pulled grounders. After that time, he had a .191 wOBA on a .227 xwOBA on pulled grounders, partly as a result of it’s pretty straightforward to place a protection to the place he’s going to bounce a pitch he rolls over; his wRC+ after April 17 was 60.
From purely a outcomes perspective, the very first thing that jumps off the web page is the 50-point drop in BABIP in 2024 (.301 to .249). Arcia did hit the ball within the air extra in ‘24, which does usually produce a decrease BABIP profile however he hits the ball on the bottom a lot anyway, there was in all probability some unhealthy luck in there, particularly with similar exit velocities.
A few of Arcia’s points have been actually only a carryover from 2023. That yr, he began out sitting on non-fastballs, basically tricking pitchers who noticed him swing out of his footwear, pondering that he was sitting useless purple. He bumped into some mechanical points attempting to finally change again to hitting fastballs that he might solely repair intermittently; his try to hunt fastballs after, in concept, pitchers realized what he was doing earlier was stymied by the truth that as soon as he switched to in search of fastballs, he went again to struggling towards every little thing else. Freddie Freeman, he’s not.
In 2024, Arcia mainly began out how he ended 2023, nonetheless searching fastballs, moderately than the rope-a-dope that helped him get off to an incredible begin in 2023. Nevertheless, the identical mechanical points continued to mess him up, and by the point he tried to wheel again round to what labored in 2023, it was too little and too late — plus, pitchers had little purpose to not simply blaze fastballs by him provided that he wasn’t hitting them nicely even when attempting to take a seat on them.
Situationally, Arcia was a catastrophe. Consistently developing in large spots and video games and always failing turned a merciless operating joke for a lot of the season for Braves followers. Arcia completed the season with a WPA (Win Likelihood Added) of -3.51, which ranked useless final in all of baseball amongst certified gamers actually all batters. The remainder of the lineup falling aside and Brian Snitker batting him fifth or sixth didn’t assist, however Arcia couldn’t for the life him give you excessive leverage manufacturing.
Maybe nothing exemplified this greater than the sport on September 1. Arcia was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts by way of eight innings, and within the ninth, Phillies reliever Matt Strahm basically pitched round each Whit Merrifield and Ramon Laureano to load the bases with one out in a tie recreation. He did this as a result of the 2 guys up subsequent have been Arcia and Luke Williams, and because it seems, strolling a number of guys to get to Arcia and Williams is a reasonably professional technique. Arcia bought three fastballs in just about the identical location (up and away), missed the primary two, after which popped out on the third. Yeah.
So, yeah, there was a plate self-discipline downside. Solely strolling 41 instances in 602 plate appearances is a incredible option to exacerbate an already intensive downside and Arcia simply completely refused to take free bases, given his predilection for swinging. He’s actually not the one hitter within the Braves lineup combating this, however the variety of instances he would swing at a nasty pitch in a three-ball depend was sufficient to drive a fanbase insane.
Bear in mind the factor about his weak grounders sneaking by way of that gave him a great begin regardless of poor precise efficiency? By April 30, these recollections have been lengthy gone. Right here’s Arcia swinging at a reasonably horrible pitch (the fourth slider he noticed in a row, and the one factor Andres Munoz threw to him) to make a key out on a grounder that didn’t lead to successful:
Stuff like this occurred quite a bit, maybe manner an excessive amount of — forgivable within the second if he have been doing different issues, however whacking a dangling splitter simply 93 mph into the bottom is… not nice.
2025 Outlook
The standard knowledge when the low season began was the Braves have been lastly, and aggressively, going to deal with this gaping gap at shortstop and Arcia was going to maneuver again to a bench function the place he belongs. Sadly, I’m unsure that’s the case. Shortstop is an extremely troublesome (and costly) place to improve and the Braves doubtless produce other wants which have jumped up the precedence checklist: beginning pitcher, outfield and bullpen. Add on that Willy Adames simply signed an enormous free agent cope with the Giants and I concern that Arcia is as soon as once more slated for 600+ plate appearances with the Braves in 2025.
Projections have him as a 90 wRC+ hitter subsequent yr with strong sufficient protection to be a 1.4 fWAR participant. The Braves would gladly take that proper this second should you might assure it, however after all, everybody is aware of with Arcia there’s extra draw back at play than that. He actually wants to determine no matter points led to particular inconsistency after his first few months of 2023, and most of 2024, however provided that it’s now been 1.5 years of struggling to simply choose a pitch to crush and execute on that, it’s not clear when reduction is coming, if in any respect.
The low season remains to be younger sufficient that’s it not unattainable the Braves make a change and it’s additionally very attainable an in-season improve occurs, however as we sit right here on the verge of the Winter Conferences, my guess is Arcia is the beginning shortstop in 2025.
Godspeed to us.
