If websites have been to take our end-of-the-year Participant Rater and simply copy it over for his or her beginning ADP, it could possible be higher than what they begin with. Certain, you’d miss just a few guys like Ronald Acuña Jr. who missed most of final yr, and possibly it’s a must to transfer down just a few guys like Chris Sale, as a result of they completed within the prime 10 total and also you wouldn’t draft them there. Okay, possibly a few of you’d. I say this as a result of whereas in search of 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers, I went to take a look at early ADP and in contrast it to the place guys completed on the Participant Rater final yr and a few have been simply so puzzling. Ian Happ was the twelfth greatest outfielder final yr and completed within the prime 50 total. He’s presently being drafted after 150 total. Some unbelievable worth available there. Taylor Ward was the twenty fifth greatest OF final yr, and 93rd total, and is presently being drafted round two hundredth total and fiftieth OF. I didn’t write up a Ian Happ sleeper as a result of he’s boring and I don’t wish to discuss him for 750 phrases. I didn’t write up a Taylor Ward sleeper as a result of I did in 2023 and I’d say numerous the identical issues. Do I like each for his or her worth? Sure. They’re simple sleepers. With that in thoughts, Alec Burleson was the twenty first greatest OF final yr and the 79th greatest participant total. He’s presently 210th total and 51st OF in ADP. Additionally, and possibly most significantly, I wish to discuss him. So, what can we count on from Alec Burleson for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I’m rolling out my 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t watch for the rankings to come back out subsequent month. Anyway II, the Alec Burleson sleeper:
Alec Burleson had a 12.8 Okay% in his first season of on a regular basis at-bats. Once more, for the folks within the again, he had a 12.8 strikeout price. That’s seventh greatest within the league. There’s no flukes within the prime 25. You don’t journey and Mr. Magoo into an ideal strikeout price. A whole lot of the blokes within the prime 25 for contact are no matter. Like Arraez or teammate Brendan Donovan or Steve Kwan or Sal Frelick or Yandy Diaz, for an instance with large muscular tissues. Lowest common within the prime 10 for contact is .260. It’s not going to be stunning to listen to Alec Burleson is neutrally a .275 hitter. Very regarding or v. regarding, if you happen to’re in a rush, is he can’t hit lefties, or didn’t final yr. Which is it? I’d say it’s simply final yr (he hit .259 in 2023 vs. lefties, however small pattern). Final yr goes to rule Oli Marmol’s thoughts although, so it could be stunning to see Burleson face everybody. As I’ve mentioned earlier than, folks overestimate how a lot it hurts a man to not face lefties. In the event that they wrestle vs. them, then it’s higher in the event that they don’t face them. So that you lose some runs and RBIs, however in most leagues, if you happen to’re paying consideration, you’ll be able to simply sub him out for somebody with higher matchups when he’s going through lefties. In the long term, you get Burleson and 24/6/.290 vs. righties and Waiver Wire Man for 7/7/.300 and that’s a superb Frankenoutfielder. That’s assuming a man with just one full yr below his belt at 26 can’t get higher vs. lefties. Although, the Playing cards haven’t coached up any of their prospects, so it’d take him being traded to a different crew to hit lefties. In seriousness, I’d wager on a man like Alec Burleson studying to hit lefties since he has an below 13 Okay%.
Spent much more time than ordinary on common, as a result of that’s his greatest trait. If he hits .310+ it wouldn’t shock me. He additionally has no actual pace. “No actual pace” might nonetheless imply 12 steals with the Pitch Clock 12, however I wouldn’t depend on it. He stole 9 baggage final yr in 13 makes an attempt, which is making the Larry David Meh face. Fortunately, he does have energy. He’s an all-fields hitter, however a principally pull energy man. He hit 38.7% to heart and solely 33.5% to proper. If he pulls extra, he would possibly get into extra energy, however he’s extra Alec Bohm than Kyle Tucker, when merely energy is taken into account. I’d put Alec Burleson on a sliding scale of homers at 22-27 vs. 27-32, that doesn’t imply there’s not a ton of worth right here. Going again to what I mentioned within the opening, he’s already been significantly better for fantasy worth than the place he’s being drafted, and, with that contact price, he’s solely going to get higher. For 2025 fantasy, I’ll give Alec Burleson projections of 78/24/66/.287/6 in 503 ABs with an opportunity for extra, particularly if he begins hitting lefties.
