Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at CI

Salaries can inflate because the season goes on. A participant that makes you suppose go because the public sale worth heads above $2 in March could look extra like a simple $4 in the midst of July. Ben Rice is that participant. However what do you do with him as soon as the season is over? Test RosterResource? Observe the offseason beat? Or, take issues into your individual palms and head to the winter conferences to ask the brass some hard-hitting questions? No matter you select, you may also incorporate a plethora of statistics to make your choices extra knowledgeable. Be a part of me as I grapple with my very own hold/minimize choices on the corner-infield place.

Substitute stage 1B (24 rostered): 4.55 P/G

Substitute stage 3B (24 rostered): 4.36 P/G

2024 Hold/Reduce: C – CI – MI – OF – SP – RP

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Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3BSalary: $5Average Wage: $62024 P/G: 4.24Proj 2025 P/G: 4.54

Draw three straight strains, every one proper by the center of the pink, blue, and yellow strains beginning in 2021 and going by 2024, and also you’ll find yourself very near what you possibly can anticipate from Candelario in 2025. That’s solely pretty much as good as a projected 4.54 P/G, roughly substitute stage for CI:

Please excuse the blur on the prime of the graph from my FanGraphs Orioles-themed vacation lights (out there to Members such as you!)

The declines from 2023 to 2024 above (wOBA, SLG, AVG) mixed with an elevated Okay% from 22.0% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024 is regarding, however Steamer is projecting a bounce again in batting common and OBP with secure slugging. The 20+ dwelling runs he’s hit in back-to-back seasons have stored him at substitute stage, and Steamer thinks he’ll repeat with 21 bombs in 2025. The proof factors to a different season of simply above substitute stage for Candelario. In that case, shouldn’t I solely be rostering him at a $1 value? Perhaps $2? Not precisely. Consider all of the minor leaguers you’re rostering above $1 and also you’ll see that the wage scale doesn’t work out that manner. I may calculate Candelario’s factors above the substitute stage to attempt to justify his wage. I may additionally take a look at the present 1B/3B free brokers across the 4.60 P/G mark and debate whether or not or not they’d be higher on my group in 2025. Or, I may simply minimize him, see if I can bid for him at a cheaper price within the draft, and hope I’m proper about all the above if I get outbid. I feel I’ll go together with that final one.

Hold or Reduce?

Reduce.

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Ben Rice, 1B/3BSalary: $4Average Wage: $52024 P/G: 2.74Proj 2025 P/G: 4.82

$4 was worth for a participant who took over full-time on the first base place when Anthony Rizzo went on the IL. Now you’re considering, the Yankees declined Antony Rizzo’s membership possibility for 2025 and Rice is the person to take his spot! RosterResource disagrees for now. It’s doable that DJ LeMahieu may play in 100 video games in 2025, however not very. So we’re again to the taking part in time query. Will Rice play within the 89 video games he’s projected for in 2025? If he does, what’s going to you get out of it? In his 50 video games as an enormous leaguer in 2024, he displayed a 15.6% barrel charge, a stable 87.3% zone contact charge, and posted a lot greater xSLG metrics than his actuals because of good contact high quality and a dismal .186 BABIP. However, he struck out an excessive amount of (27.0%) and had problem hitting breaking balls. He additionally hit poorly towards lefties and might want to do higher or discover himself in a platoon. Rice actually has potential and has proven he can hit within the large leagues, however too many changes to make to change into an on a regular basis large leaguer in 2025. $4 is simply too excessive a worth for that.

Hold or Reduce?

Reduce.

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Nolan Schanuel, 1B/3BSalary: $5Average Wage: $52024 P/G: 4.31Proj 2025 P/G: 5.03

Can Schanuel take a step ahead in 2025? That needs to be the query as a result of, whereas he’s nonetheless very younger heading into his age 23 season, he has not but proven a lot fantasy relevance apart from an accumulation of 607 plate appearances. That’s price one thing, but it surely’s not price $5 by itself. Schanuel’s 2024 zone contact charge was one of many highest within the league, nineteenth amongst certified hitters. However it got here with neither a excessive batting common (.250BA, .260xBA) or energy efficiency (.362SLG, .364xSLG). His .285 BABIP didn’t assist, however his anticipated stats don’t point out all dangerous luck. He put the ball on the bottom (46.1%) extra usually than common (42.2%), however not at an exaggerated charge. Essentially the most worrisome facet of his profile is his poor efficiency towards fastballs. He’s attending to them (Okay%: 13.8%), however he’s not doing a lot with them as soon as they’re in play, slashing solely .212/.332/.330 towards four-seamers. If he had higher underlying metrics; barrel charge, hard-hit charge, common exit velocity, I’d be all for preserving him. He has superb plate self-discipline and speak to charges which point out he may take a step ahead in batting common in 2025, however in an Ottonue factors league format, I’m not all for preserving him.

Hold or Reduce?

Reduce.

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Josh Bell, 1B/3BSalary: $3Average Wage: $52024 P/G: 4.80Proj 2025 P/G: 4.92

It’s laborious to imagine that Bell goes into his age 32 season. He’s a free agent. Regardless, he’s projected (Steamer) to slug above common (.418) and hit one other 20 dwelling runs. For those who learn Candelario’s evaluation above, you’re most likely questioning what the distinction is between these two gamers:

From a factors perspective, not a lot. What Bell loses in slugging share and stolen bases, he makes up for with walks. Each are anticipated to be nearly common gamers. That is tremendously extra plausible given these are veteran gamers who’ve collected giant pattern sizes including extra confidence to their projections. Simply as you could possibly with Candelario’s chart, you possibly can draw a straight line someplace between Bell’s 2021 marks and 2024 marks and fairly anticipate the efficiency of the place the road ends for 2025:

For those who had to decide on between the 2, you could possibly contemplate Candelario’s up and down efficiency associated to damage and Bell’s downward trajectory as an indication of growing old, hold one and minimize the opposite. In my case, I’ll minimize each and hope I can save $1-$2 in a re-draft.

Hold or Reduce?

Reduce.

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Juan Yepez, 1B/3BSalary: $3Average Wage: $52024 P/G: 4.68Proj 2025 P/G: 4.90

Out of the 5 gamers analyzed on this article, Juan Yepez had the second-highest factors per sport mark in 2024 behind Josh Bell. That’s barely above the 1B replacement-level mark of 4.55 P/G. Let’s begin with the fundamentals. Yepez remains to be younger at age 26. He has three seasons of MLB expertise, but his time in 2023, the center season, was restricted to 65 plate appearances with the Cardinals. He showcased an above-average zone contact charge within the two seasons during which he collected greater than 200 plate appearances. That’s good. Sadly, the supportive energy metrics (Barrel%, HardHit%, HR/FB) don’t assist high quality contact to associate with that zone contact. He’s displayed pockets of stable energy within the type of slugging share over his three seasons, however has by no means stored issues constant sufficient, for lengthy sufficient:

Head over to Yepez’s BaseballSavant web page and also you’ll see that he has not but certified for Statcast percentile rankings. His maxEV is within the 84th percentile, however that little piece of proof wouldn’t sway a jury. However could I now level your consideration girls and gents of the jury, to his L/R splits:

vs.R: .253/.311/.446 (161 PA)

vs.L: .375/.409/.575 (88 PA)

He’s out right here simply crushing lefties. A .575 slugging share is healthier than what Juan Soto (.569), Yordan Alvarez (.567), and Brent Rooker (.562) did to all pitchers in 2025. No, I’m not insinuating that Juan Yepez towards lefties is Juan Soto, however he did strike out (16.9%) at almost the identical charge as Juan Soto (16.7%) towards all pitchers in 2024. That’s down an ideal deal from 2022’s 30.8% and that top 2022 mark is probably going what bought him despatched to the minor leagues in early June of that season with the Cardinals. A lot of that decreased Okay% may be defined for those who view his decreased swinging strike charges on particular person pitches:

Above we see that this younger hitter has developed over time towards particular pitches. It’s nice for those who can decrease your Okay% by choosing up the fastball just a little higher, however doing so towards three completely different pitches signifies a creating maturity in method. If Yepez can have spring, make the opening-day roster, and persist with his method from 2024, he shall be price preserving. I’ll take the prospect. His ceiling could solely be barely above substitute stage and I may very well be accused of attempting to speak myself into preserving him, however I feel he deserves a full season of baseball earlier than I minimize him. I hope he can get it with the Nats in 2025. The Nats RosterResource web page has him listed as subsequent season’s 1B with no platoon tag.

Hold or Reduce?

Hold.