Everybody loves a superb MVP debate (truly, everybody would possibly hate a superb MVP debate, now that I give it some thought) and fantasy MVPs are significantly enjoyable (or not enjoyable, I suppose) to debate as a result of worth may be robust to outline. Due to the fastened price range in any fantasy league (both a set variety of {dollars} or a set variety of draft slots), a participant’s acquisition value has an actual affect on their worth. This leaves fantasy managers to debate if essentially the most invaluable gamers are those who produce essentially the most, those who return essentially the most worth relative to value, or one thing else. In the present day I need to contemplate “one thing else.”
I’ve the total rosters from March 20 of 138 Ottoneu FanGraphs Factors Leagues. These leagues are all Ottoneu Status League eligible which implies they stick to plain Ottoneu economics – 12 groups, 40-man rosters, $400 budgets. Seven of those leagues have fewer than 450 gamers rostered and could also be pre-or mid-auction, however that needs to be tremendous for what we’re doing at present.
And what we’re doing at present is defining Most Precious Participant, in an Ottoneu context, based mostly on how nicely groups did, on common, given they rostered that participant as of March 20 (that’s, Opening Day). I’ve mixed the roster information with end-of-season standings and assigned every occasion of a participant (that participant on a particular crew in a particular league) a last standing based mostly on how that crew completed the yr.
This does imply {that a} participant who was on a crew on March 20 and reduce on March 21 will nonetheless be assigned a end, however that isn’t an issue for what I’m evaluating. If a participant was extensively reduce in March or April, that might affect how invaluable (or not) they had been. Possibly being so unhealthy that you’re reduce early makes you extra invaluable than a participant who isn’t unhealthy sufficient to be reduce however isn’t ok to assist, both? Equally, a participant who’s traded shall be assigned a end based mostly on the place they began the yr however, once more, that commerce worth might need made them a superb public sale pickup or keeper.
And on the finish of the day, that’s what we’re – who’re essentially the most invaluable gamers (and least invaluable gamers) to roster going into the season?
Let’s begin on the prime. There are a couple of gamers who had been rostered on precisely one crew going into the season and that crew completed first. However I don’t assume Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, Nathan Lavender, and Victor Gonzalez are the names we’re searching for. As a substitute, let’s say that to even qualify for Ottoneu MVP, you’ll want to have been on at the least 10% of rosters (14+) when the season began. Right here is that record:
Solely eight gamers had been on 10% of rosters or extra and had a mean end of fifth or higher, and people gamers are everywhere in the map. You’ve two fairly high-priced stars, in Schwarber and Decide; a breakout star who continues to be in all probability underpriced, in Henderson; a low-cost SP who put up an enormous comeback season, in Sale; and a strong, maybe under-appreciated OF, in Ward. You even have one wonderful reliever (Erceg) and two unhealthy relievers (Maton and Miller). And, naturally, Maton is in some way one of the best, by this measure.
The apparent takeaway right here is that being on plenty of good groups doesn’t imply you’re a good participant. The 19 groups that rostered Maton didn’t do nicely as a result of they rostered Maton; they did nicely despite him.
It’s additionally considerably attention-grabbing that this record doesn’t embody guys like Jarren Duran, Brent Rooker, Marcell Ozuna or different cheap gamers who put up large seasons. You’d assume these guys would pop up right here, however they didn’t. We’re additionally not seeing each high-priced star. The truth that Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and Juan Soto should not on this record, whereas Decide and Schwarber and Henderson are, is considerably attention-grabbing.
It’s maybe significant that the highest scorer amongst bats with a mean wage over $40 (Decide), the highest scorer amongst bats with a mean wage over $30 however beneath $40 (Henderson), and the highest scorer amongst bats with a mean wage over $20 however beneath $30 (Schwarber) are all on right here.
However that doesn’t clarify why Duran and Ozuna (over $10, however beneath $20; and beneath $10, respectively) are NOT on right here. Ozuna was thirty fifth on this record; Duran 91st. Out of 626 gamers rostered in 10% or extra of leagues, that’s nonetheless fairly excessive, however even Ozuna was nearer to being outdoors the highest 100 than he was to cracking the highest eight.
Possibly the massive takeaway right here is that good gamers who’ve good seasons are good to roster. And in addition three random $1 relievers, two of whom had been terrible.
On the different finish of the spectrum, the very first thing I observed is that not one of the “least” invaluable gamers had been that extensively rostered:
Not considered one of these gamers was rostered in even 30% of leagues. A part of that’s that these had been gamers who didn’t produce and didn’t provide a lot commerce worth and who, to be trustworthy, we might have/ought to have identified that about even in March. Which is why they had been so not often rostered.
Let’s improve our threshold to 50% rostered and see if we get extra attention-grabbing names.
Potential Ottoneu LVPs (50% rostered)
It’s principally breakout candidates who didn’t breakout, prospects who struggled after which you’ve guys like Merrifield and Verdugo who appear to have extra title worth than on-field worth in Ottoneu. Merrifield hadn’t been Ottoneu-useful since 2021 and hadn’t been a net-positive to your crew since 2020. Verdugo was barely a top-60 OF in 2023 and was even worse in 2022.
Curiously, there is just one RP on this record – Lange. And in contrast to the RP on the earlier record, who all had common salaries of $1 initially of the season, Lange had a mean wage of $7. One of many issues I need to take a look at, and these lists trace at a solution, is whether or not it makes extra sense to pay up for RP or go low-cost on RP at public sale.
For now although, these are your MVP and LVP candidates. However I feel I ought to put a stake within the floor.
I’ll go together with Schwarber for . I’m not giving it to Maton and whereas I might go together with any of the following three, I feel Schwarber is most deserving. Decide got here at a a lot larger value and Henderson was principally simply an apparent keeper.
For LVP, my vote goes to Verudgo. Whereas he carried out higher than a lot of the remainder of that record, being so extensively rostered ought to think about. I virtually went with Merrifield, however in case you rostered Whit, you knew what you had been getting and also you introduced it on your self.
