Third baseman Nolan Arenado is a logical commerce candidate with the Cardinals planning a reset 12 months. Because the Playing cards assess the curiosity, Katie Woo of The Athletic reviews that Arenado is prepared to maneuver to first base with a brand new membership, or at the least play the new nook much less typically.
Arenado has lengthy voiced a want to compete, which is what spurred his commerce from Colorado to St. Louis years in the past. He additionally declined a chance to opt-out of his contract after 2022, seemingly content material with the Cardinals’ standing as perennial contenders. However their efficiency has sagged lately, inflicting them to pivot to a deal with participant growth and fewer on quick competition, at the least for 2025 however maybe longer.
With that near-term future outlook, it is sensible to think about buying and selling some gamers that aren’t a part of the long-term plans. Arenado is popping 34 years previous in April and has three years left on his contract, so there’s logic to the membership making him out there. He has a no-trade clause however it is sensible that he would have some openness to waiving it, given his want to compete and win. Woo reviews that Arenado has not demanded a commerce however was receptive to the thought when president of baseball operations John Mozeliak mentioned it with him.
It’s not unusual for gamers to be prepared to alter positions with the intention to broaden their potential touchdown spots. This offseason, free brokers like third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames are reportedly prepared to maneuver to different infield spots. Each are robust defenders at their positions, however it’s a wise tactic in conserving one’s market as vast open as potential.
With Arenado, it makes somewhat bit much less sense. Over the previous couple of years, his offense has declined however he has nonetheless been a invaluable participant due to his third base protection. He has slashed .269/.320/.426 over the 2 most up-to-date campaigns, offense that interprets to a 104 wRC+, barely above league common. Nevertheless, FanGraphs has nonetheless calculated him as being value about three wins above substitute in every these seasons (2.7 in 2023 and three.1 in 2024), due to his robust glovework.
Arenado has by no means performed a place apart from third, although he most likely wouldn’t have a lot hassle shifting throughout the diamond since first base is mostly thought-about a much less demanding place. However that may additionally deprive him of his greatest asset at this level in his profession, until his bat can rebound in an enormous means.
His willingness to maneuver might maybe be an element if a membership already had a wonderful third baseman, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville Information-Democrat (Bluesky hyperlink) speculating that the Padres are one such membership. That crew has Manny Machado, a powerful third baseman in his personal proper, entrenched at third base as a franchise cornerstone. He’s below contract for nearly one other decade, by 2033.
They’ve a bit much less certainty at first base. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arráez received a lot of the enjoying time there in 2024 however each are able to enjoying second base. The Padres had Xander Bogaerts on the keystone for a lot of 2024 however he moved again to shortstop when Ha-Seong Kim received injured, and Kim is now a free agent. Arráez can also be not an excellent defender, at secord or first base, so maybe he would greatest match within the designated hitter slot.
Theoretically, it’s potential that the membership might have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Arenado from left to proper, with Arráez within the DH spot. Every now and then, Machado might get a breather because the DH, with Arenado shifting to 3rd and Arráez enjoying first.
There are additionally different explanation why the match might make sense, as Arenado beforehand performed for Padres supervisor Mike Shildt when Shildt was skipper in St. Louis. Arenado can also be a Southern California native. That has typically led to rumors of him finally being traded to the Dodgers, however the match there’s a bit trickier. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani taking on the DH spot, Freddie Freeman at first and Max Muncy at third. Theoretically, they may purchase Arenado and commerce Muncy, although it’s unclear if they’ve any want to take action. Muncy’s protection is a bit behind Arenado’s however he’s been higher on the plate currently, having slashed .218/.342/.481 over the previous two years for a 124 wRC+.
It might maybe be less complicated for the Padres to only purchase a primary baseman and for Arenado to go to a membership with a spot at third base. The Crimson Sox are reportedly considering of shifting Rafael Devers to first and will change him on the scorching nook by buying Arenado. Groups just like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Brewers, Tigers, Mets and Phillies have been related to free brokers like Bregman or Adames, or are at the least speculative matches for a brand new third baseman. Arenado’s no-trade clause implies that he would get to find out whether or not or not he goes to these golf equipment and it’s unknown how he would really feel about them when it comes to their capacity to contend or how a lot their respective geographic places would matter to him.
On prime of all that, the Cardinals must assess what different golf equipment are prepared to supply in return. Although the Playing cards are planning to run a decrease payroll in 2025, they don’t really want to maneuver Arenado’s contract with the intention to accomplish that. RosterResource already tasks them to be about $35MM decrease than they had been in 2024, so price financial savings shouldn’t be the precedence right here. To that finish, Woo reviews that they gained’t transfer Arenado simply to maneuver him or dump wage.
A commerce would presumably solely come collectively if the Cardinals really feel they’re getting one thing of worth in return. Maybe they may eat some the rest of Arenado’s contract with the intention to line up on a deal. He’s owed $74MM over the following three seasons although a few of that cash is deferred and the Rockies are additionally nonetheless on the hook for $5MM this coming season. Along with including some younger expertise within the commerce, the Playing cards might additionally use their reset 12 months to present Arenado’s enjoying time to gamers like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese or others.
For a crew just like the Padres, like they may desire the Cardinals to eat some cash, since their payroll has been such a problem lately. They dialed again spending after 2023, dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees, and averted the aggressive steadiness tax. Going into 2025, RosterResource tasks their payroll to be about $40MM above 2024 ranges earlier than making any important offseason strikes, with their CBT a bit over the road already as nicely. Then again, they’ve traded away lots of prospects lately and may not need to additional deplete their farm simply to awkwardly wedge Arenado into their infield combine.
Woo’s reporting additionally provides that no deal is near being accomplished, however she provides that issues might choose up on the Winter Conferences, which occur from December 8 to 11.
