Is Blake Snell having the weirdest year of his career yet?

San Francisco’s new left-hander, Blake Snell, is having an outstandingly-strange 2024 MLB season. If you happen to had been to ask any Giants fan what they considered Blake Snell within the months of April by way of June, the responses would have been stuffed with disappointment. Snell signed a 2 yr, $62 million contract in late March of 2024, about as late as you may signal with a staff earlier than the common season begins. In a separate, earlier piece written by yours actually, Snell’s tendencies to begin the season poorly had been highlighted, confirmed by his 11.57 ERA in his first 11.2 inning pitched with the Giants. Nevertheless, like each different yr in Snell’s profession, Blake was in a position to flip issues round within the second half. However this time round, Snell has seemingly soared to a stage he has by no means pitched earlier than.

The 31-year-old southpaw pitched into the ninth inning for the primary time in his profession throughout his first time pitching in Cincinnati’s Nice American Ballpark. Snell additionally was in a position to maintain the Reds to zero hits on 114 pitches on August 2nd. Snell’s excessive ceiling has at all times been restricted by his challenge with handing out free passes to hitters. This night time in opposition to the Reds was not loads totally different with three walks by Snell. It didn’t matter a lot, as Snell was dominant on one other stage. His 11 strikeouts had been nothing in comparison with a begin that he had 5 days earlier. On July 27, Snell took the mound in opposition to the Colorado Rockies and proceeded to strike out 15 batters in simply six innings pitched. His 15 Okay’s in 6.0 IP was one thing that had by no means occurred earlier than in MLB historical past.

Blake Snell has by no means had an ERA over 3.50 within the second half of any season in his profession. That is particularly spectacular in 2020, as there have been solely 60 video games performed in that restricted season. Up to now in 2024, Snell is having his finest season by ERA within the second half since 2018. In 33.1 innings, Snell has a 1.35 ERA with 49 strikeouts. Hitters are slashing .110/.192/.193 in opposition to Snell. The triple, sub .200 slash line is one thing not loads of pitchers can say they’ve had at any level of their careers. The numbers make sense for the way a lot of a drive Snell has been on the mound for the reason that All-Star break. In truth, since July 9, Snell has a 0.55 ERA and 41 strikeouts. However what do the superior metric percentiles say about Snell’s success?

Snell’s percentiles are nice. Maybe essentially the most spectacular of all are his anticipated stats. He lands within the 97th percentile for anticipated ERA and the 98th for anticipated batting common in opposition to. Another notables are his 98th in Whiff%, ninety fifth in strikeout share, 98th in Laborious-Hit% and 91st in common exit velocity in opposition to. Merely put, as soon as Snell was in a position to get stretched out, he has been among the many finest pitchers within the recreation. His anticipated stats again up his success too, proving that there’s near no luck concerned in his stellar output on the mound. 

So what does this imply for Blake Snell shifting ahead? Properly, groups are effectively conscious of the anomaly that’s first-half Blake Snell. The difficulty was on full show this yr, and lots of followers theorize that it was the dearth of Spring-Coaching appearances made by the lefty. The Giants tried to get him the work he wanted in a couple of AAA begins, however these had been solely made when Snell was rehabbing from harm. For essentially the most half, the timing of Snell’s signing mixed with the Giants’ choice to throw him proper into the hearth on the major-league stage value him a number of terrible video games and further losses for the staff as a complete. If Snell chooses to train his opt-out after this season, the very best plan of action will probably be to signal him early and get him a ton of labor within the early a part of Spring. The truth that he begins seasons the way in which he does must be much more incentive for groups to ink his contract early within the offseason signing course of.

With the Giants deciding to not commerce Snell at this yr’s deadline, they are going to trip the excessive of Snell’s superior season with their sights set on making the postseason for the primary time since 2021. This staff and its rotation have an opportunity to go on just a little run in an effort to declare a Wildcard spot for themselves. Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Robbie Ray are three pitchers that no staff would need to face in that three-game Wildcard collection. The baseball world noticed what occurred final yr with the Arizona Diamondbacks making the World Sequence as a Wildcard staff, so merely making the playoffs must be the highest precedence for this SF squad. It is laborious to recollect a pitcher with the polarizing splits like Blake Snell has between halves of MLB seasons. Fortunately for the Giants, they’re proper within the playoff race with second-half Snell throwing no hitters, setting strikeout information and making opposing hitters look silly each 5 days.