Assigning worth is an imperfect science. By definition, worth is “the regard that one thing is held to deserve; the significance, value, or usefulness of one thing.” In Dynasty codecs, values could be as inconsistent because the gamers they signify. As we proceed to develop as an business, the quantity of opinions grows as properly, some for the higher and a few for the more serious. In any occasion, each particular person is entitled to worth a participant in their very own means for their very own causes. Listed below are three gamers I deem to be overvalued in Dynasty.
Brooks Lee, SS, MIN
Getting a correct evaluation of a participant with 185 profession plate appearances within the Main Leagues is daunting. However, within the case of Brooks Lee, I’m assured we all know what kind of participant we’re getting.
Lee was a highly-regarded prospect within the Twins group and had a productive Minor League profession. In 191 video games, he hit .290 with 28 homers, a .362 on-base share, and 58 extra-base hits. His profile is constructed on a strong plate strategy, a plus-hit device, and first rate velocity. Lee made constant contact with good batted ball information (90.5 mph avg EV/ 103 mph ninetieth) within the Minors, displaying extra extra-base energy than HR energy. As a switch-hitter, he excelled from the left aspect of the plate, posting a .860 OPS in comparison with a .603 from the fitting aspect. A herniated disc held him out of motion till mid-Might final season. However, as Lee approached the Majors following his return, his energy ticked up, smashing eight homers in his first 25 video games at Triple-A.
The Twins recalled Lee on July third, 2024, and he acquired off to a red-hot begin. Over his first eight video games, Lee slashed .364/.371/.576 with two homers and 9 RBI in 33 at-bats. Issues began to even out for Lee earlier than a shoulder harm landed him on the IL in early August. Over his closing 44 video games, he hit simply .182 with two homers and a .503 OPS. Lee had a formidable 14.6% strikeout price regardless of chasing practically 36% of the time in his restricted pattern. His batted ball information was poor within the Majors, together with an 85.8 mph common EV, 4.1% barrel price, and 24.5% hard-hit price. It’s a tiny pattern for a participant adjusting to MLB pitching, however elite contact expertise don’t essentially translate to energy, and we’ve seen this earlier than with gamers like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. I’m not saying Lee is both of these gamers, however his mixture of energy/contact is in the same realm.
So why is Lee overvalued?
I perceive the protection of a participant who gives a excessive ground with above-average batting common and good, however not nice, energy. However, I’ve two important considerations with Lee. In a number of retailers, Lee continuously seems contained in the Prime 150 (or greater) dynasty belongings, which is means too excessive.
First, Lee doesn’t have a carrying device in fantasy. His finest asset is his batting common, which is able to doubtless peak round .290. That could be a strong batting common and somebody who would stabilize a fantasy lineup. Sadly, that doesn’t at all times result in excellent worth, as a Prime 150 participant would point out. Lee’s energy is minimal. He may attain 20 homers if the celebrities align, however 10-12 homers yearly is a way more practical expectation. The Twins dabbled with Lee in the course of the lineup, which might assist his counting stats, however the offensive upside remains to be restricted. I view Lee as a poor man’s model of Xander Bogaerts, solely it’s the present model of Bogaerts, not the version we noticed as a viable fantasy asset from 2018-2021. That kind of participant, particularly at SS and even 3B, solely carries a bit of weight except for a MI or CI position.
The second concern is that Lee will not be an everyday. His splits are poor in opposition to LHP, and whereas he would nonetheless be on the sturdy aspect of a platoon, that will restrict his at-bats. Lee may completely transfer to the left aspect, however even then, we all know the Twins don’t play their left-handed hitters in opposition to same-side pitching. It turns into a situation that I’d want to keep away from in most codecs, though he may present added worth in OBP codecs with every day lineups.
Last Ideas
I’ve Lee exterior my Prime 250 total and as my Thirty first-rated shortstop. I see worth in his profile, however I want extra to justify a excessive rating. In a best-case situation, Lee delivers a .290/20/80/80 final result. That’s a strong season, however it could be an outlier lead to an in any other case common profession.
Tanner Houck, SP, BOS
I’m a Crimson Sox fan; in case you’ve learn my work earlier than, you already know this. If not, right here is my disclaimer. Since his debut, Tanner Houck has been some extent of rivalry for Crimson Sox followers. In his rookie season, he pitched properly, posting an 0.53 ERA in three begins within the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The next season, the Crimson Sox began toying with Houck, transferring him out and in of the rotation at will, which continued into 2022. In his first two seasons, Houck had a 31% strikeout price, which supplied hope that he may blossom right into a viable fantasy choice. Then, Houck grew to become a better choice for the Sox in June 2022. He saved eight video games and earned 5 wins earlier than a again harm ended his season in early August. He completed with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as a reliever, in comparison with 4.32 and 1.32 as a starter.
Houck was declared a starter earlier than 2023 and would stay in that position for the “foreseeable future.” However, final season didn’t go properly for Houck. He made 21 begins, yielding a 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He was dominant when he was going properly; when he wasn’t, it was ugly. And there have been only a few in between. Houck struggled to command as much as seven pitches with important motion. The shortage of command led to inefficiency and excessive pitch counts, typically forcing him out of video games early and with runners on base. The Crimson Sox bullpen didn’t assist both, additional inflating his ERA.
Tanner Houck took a major step ahead in 2024. Houck’s arsenal performed up with the addition of Andrew Bailey as pitching coach. Bailey’s philosophy revolves round throwing your finest pitches probably the most typically, and for Houck, it was his sinker and slider. As well as, his command improved considerably as he lowered his stroll price to a career-best 6.5%, and with added effectivity, he went deeper into video games. In 24 of his 30 begins, Houck pitched into the sixth inning, one thing he had achieved simply ten occasions in his earlier 41 begins. Getting into June, Houck had a 1.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 12 outings with a 24% strikeout price and 5% stroll price and was among the many frontrunners to start out the All-Star Recreation for the AL. Houck blew previous his earlier innings most (106) because the season progressed and wore down. After June 1st, his ERA was 4.11, with a strikeout price of 18.3% and a walk-rate close to 8%. The 2024 season was a hit for Houck (3.12 ERA & 1.14 WHIP) and has induced him to be considerably overvalued in fantasy.
So why is Houck overvalued?
Following his unimaginable begin, Houck was a stylish play in Redraft and Dynasty final season. With the good points in command and elevated innings, his dynasty inventory soared from the excessive 200s contained in the Prime 150 in some locations. The highest 150 vary in my rankings consists of SPs like Kodai Senga, Bryan Woo, Jack Flaherty, and so on. These are SP2 varieties with above-average carrying instruments (primarily strikeouts), few flaws, and elevated win potential. I don’t see Houck in that mild. Right here’s why.
Houck is beneath common in strikeout manufacturing. Even with three pitches that grade above 80 on the PLV, he posted a 20.7% strikeout price this season with a 22.5% whiff price. Each of these metrics rank within the backside third within the league. His career-best strikeout price was 2022 (22.7%), throughout which he spent most of his season within the bullpen. As a starter, Houck has a 21% strikeout price and averages round 8 Ks per 9. Solely two pitchers can be thought of among the many elite arms with that strikeout price amongst certified starters: Logan Webb and Sandy Alcantara. Once you think about his Okay-BB price of ~14%, once more, you discover Alcantara and a bunch of barely rosterable SPs like Jordan Lyles and Miles Mikolas. Not elite firm by any stretch.
Regression is coming. Houck had a 6.5% stroll price, a 3.12 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP final season, all career-bests. Even with the good points in command, Houck remains to be a mid-7% stroll price, ERA over 4, and 1.2 WHIP type of man. In truth, his anticipated ERA final season was 4.05. Guys who pitch to contact hardly ever maintain ratios that low over the course of their careers, and I’ve no supporting information to point that Houck will.
Inning considerations ought to be an element. Houck tossed 178 2/3 innings in 2024, 70+ innings over his profession excessive (106). As soon as he reached that mark, he began to break down. Over his final 71 innings spanning 13 outings, his ERA was 3.80 with a 16.1% Okay-rate, 9.5% BB-rate, 4.41 xFIP, and 1.32 WHIP. Houck might attain that workload once more, however what outcomes will we see? There’s not sufficient observe document to counsel that that is sustainable.
Last Ideas
I really like Tanner Houck. He’s a gamer and a grinder, and I really like the eagerness he brings to the Crimson Sox. As a fantasy asset, he’s fairly meh. The quantity is okay, however the ratios are beneath common, and the win potential is marginal. Houck is inside my Prime 250 total, rating 69th amongst SPs. Barring a major talent change, that’s about as excessive as I can justify rating Houck in the long term.
Andrés Muñoz, RP, SEA
Nice closers are exhausting to seek out in fantasy. In uncommon cases, you’ll discover an Emmanuel Clase or Edwin Díaz who dominates over a multi-year span and turns into genuinely elite. Much more uncommon are the Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel varieties who proceed to get saves regardless of shedding their premium stuff. Most closers have an abbreviated shelf life, spanning just a few seasons with ups and downs earlier than in the end giving approach to the following massive factor. So, it’s difficult to challenge their longevity when evaluating a better in dynasty. With that in thoughts, let’s discuss Andrés Muñoz of the Seattle Mariners.
Munoz burst onto the scene in 2022, posting a 2.49 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, dominating hitters along with his high-octane arsenal. In 64 appearances, Munoz racked up 22 holds and 4 saves as the first setup man for nearer Paul Sewald. With a slider that generated a near-30% swinging strike price and a triple-digits fastball, Munoz had the arsenal to take the following step.
Sadly, Munoz was bitten by the harm bug early within the 2023 season. He missed a lot of the first two months with a shoulder pressure. When he returned in June, Munoz posted 11 holds and two saves in 22 video games, with a 3.38 ERA and 35.6% strikeout price. When the Mariners abruptly traded nearer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks, Munoz grew to become the man in Seattle. Instantly, fantasy house owners reaped Munoz’s advantages in his new position. Regardless of blowing two save possibilities, he completed August with 9 saves, a 32.8% strikeout price, and a 1.93 ERA. His season concluded with a 2.94 ERA, 13 saves, and 14 holds.
Munoz was strong once more in 2024. In 60 video games, he transformed 22 of 27 save possibilities with a 2.12 ERA and a 33.2% strikeout price. At 25, Munoz has 40 profession saves with an ERA beneath 3, averaging 12.4 Ks/9.
So why is Munoz overvalued?
Firstly, his saves output could possibly be higher. He had a career-high 22 saves this season as the first nearer on a crew that gained 85 video games. These 22 saves had been the nineteenth most in baseball behind guys like Pete Fairbanks, who was oft-injured, and Craig Kimbrel, who misplaced his job in early August. He completed tied with Tanner Scott, who was traded to a setup position in July, and one forward of Trevor Megill, who was the Brewers’ nearer till late July and transformed one save after Devin Williams returned. “Elite” closers attain 35+ saves, and actually good closers ought to push for 30. It’s not essentially his fault, however crew context is a crucial consideration. Possibly Munoz will get to that fairly good degree with a brand new supervisor coming. Underneath the Scott Servais regime because the crew’s supervisor (’16-’24), one Mariners nearer exceeded 30 saves, Edwin Díaz, who saved 57 in 2018.
Second is his volatility. Munoz has dazzled along with his strikeout numbers, sporting a 34.2% profession strikeout price and the 12.4 Ks per 9 as talked about earlier. With that comes a 9.6% stroll price and 6 hits per 9. Whereas Munoz has unimaginable stuff, he permits loads of baserunners and has blown 13 of 53 alternatives (24.5%) or one-quarter of his possibilities. Everyone seems to be human, however when your saves output is the principle think about your worth, a 75% success price is subpar.
The third cause is his harm historical past. Along with his shoulder harm in 2023, Munoz has missed important time with a deltoid harm, elbow soreness, and a number of foot accidents. He appeared in back-to-back video games simply 11 occasions final season and has by no means pitched three consecutive days. With a lot deal with taking part in matchups, load administration, and so on., Munoz won’t ever have the chance to succeed in elite ranges, and for me, that’s not a Prime 5 nearer in dynasty.
Last Ideas
Munoz is being handled as an elite nearer, however primarily based on the data above, I’m involved that he won’t attain that manufacturing degree. The mixture of lack of manufacturing, inconsistent command, and harm woes is problematic and can in the end restrict his worth in Dynasty.
