Do you ever sit right down to learn one thing and assume, “wait, I’ve learn this earlier than”? When you get that sense of deja vu whereas studying this text, it’s as a result of – for probably the most half – I’m repeating what I wrote final 12 months. It’s as soon as once more a brand new 12 months and as soon as once more time to dive into my Ottoneu tiered rankings and as soon as once more I first have to introduce my rankings. Then, over the subsequent few weeks, hopefully concluding earlier than the lower deadline on 1/31, I’ll roll out particular person positional rankings.
As I did final 12 months, I’m going to construction this introduction as an FAQ.
Why do you do tiered rankings as an alternative of simply rating 1 by means of no matter and sticking with that? Are you scared to place a stake within the floor?
Properly, yeah, type of? However it’s mot as a result of I’m scared to be fallacious, it’s as a result of I do know my very own limitations (and that of people usually) and the actual fact is, I can’t clearly and distinctly separate each single participant from each different participant. Proper this very second (SPOILER ALERT!), I’ve Corbin Carroll forward of Julio Rodriguez, however each in my $36-$44 tier. That rating does imply that given a alternative between the 2, I’d at the moment take Carroll. However usually I feel they’re each in that tier of OF, together with another names. When you like yet another than the opposite, nice.
However I additionally don’t assume you possibly can ever simply straight rank guys, as a result of there may be a lot context lacking from that rating. In a later tier, I’ve Jesus Sanchez and Jordan Walker. Can I put one forward of the opposite in a rating? I can, and I’ll. However they’re so totally different. Walker has a decrease ground and a better ceiling. When you want sure-production, he isn’t nearly as good a guess. If you wish to take a threat, he’s a lottery ticket that would repay. In a single public sale, I’d decide Sanchez; in one other, Walker. Therefore, identical tier.
So if you criticize my rankings, simply take into account that I don’t really feel tremendous strongly concerning the numeric rankings. I really feel extra strongly concerning the tiers.
Okay, so what are these “tiers” and what do they imply, anyway?
Final 12 months, I examined one thing new and I type of favored it. I used the identical set of tiers ($0, $0-$1, $1-$2, $3-$5, $6-$9, $10-$14, $15-$20, $21-$27, $28-$35, $36-$44, $45-$54, $55-$65) for each place. If a participant is within the $3-$5 tier, I’d not wish to pay $6 for him, however I’d gladly go over $2. If he’s within the $28-$35 tier, I’d assume he’s a $30 participant and never go to $32 or $33, however I undoubtedly wouldn’t go to $36. Fairly easy, proper?
You say it’s easy, however the three lowest tiers overlap. Can’t you depend?
Good eye! Sure they do overlap and sure I can depend. However, like final 12 months, I wished to keep away from pretending there was too clear a distinction between $0 and $1 gamers and even $1 and $2 gamers. There are greater than 480 rosterable gamers and solely 480 roster spots, so on the margins, you’ll have some gamers that may be price $1, however don’t get auctioned, and that’s okay. Right here is how I interpret these tiers:
$0 – I received’t roster this participant
$0-$1 – I can see rostering this participant, and so they most likely must be rostered in some leagues, however there they received’t match on each roster or be picked up in each league.
$1-$2 – These gamers most likely must be rostered.
You all the time discuss projections? Did you simply let Steamer put these gamers so as after which take credit score?
No. A bit of, possibly. Not simply Steamer although. However, effectively, type of? Right here is my course of:
I pull each participant within the Ottoneu universe right into a spreadsheet.
I then filter out anybody who meets ALL of the next standards:
Not rostered in any of three Ottoneu Slack Neighborhood mock auctions I checked out
Rostered in lower than 4% of Ottoneu leagues
Has a worth under $0 primarily based on Depth Charts projections
Is outdoors the highest 125 prospects on a consensus rating I created primarily based on rankings I like to make use of
For the remaining gamers, I assign every a place (C, 1B, 3B, MI, OF, U, SP, RP)
I create a sheet with all remaining gamers and with columns for place, worth from Justin Vibber’s Surplus Calculator, two totally different values for various valuation methodologies I used, common worth from these mock drafts, and prospect rating
I put every participant right into a tier – sure, I create tier BEFORE rankings – utilizing all of these columns, plus different information (possible position, how I really feel about their depth chart projection, and so on.) as inputs
I’m going again and rank gamers inside every tier and make corrections to tiers if I discover a participant who I do know longer assume belongs within the tier I initially assigned.
I evaluate the complete rankings for the place, make participant notes, and modify rankings and tiers as I’m going.
I didn’t see any point out of inflation. Does that imply these rankings are solely good for first 12 months leagues?
No. The tiers themselves undoubtedly apply extra on to first 12 months leagues, however they’re directionally nonetheless proper for future leagues, you simply want to use inflation. If a participant within the $28-$35 tier is in your roster in a 4th 12 months league at $37, they’re most likely a reasonably stable keeper.
Are these solely good for FanGraphs Factors Leagues?
No. They’re constructed primarily based on FGPts scoring, however they are often utilized to different codecs:
For SABR Factors, hitter rankings are the identical, however pitchers are rather less beneficial and RP are just a little extra beneficial relative to SP.
For 4×4 leagues, the worth curve is just a little flatter (the highest guys aren’t AS beneficial) however the order is fairly comparable; although homer-prone pitchers take a much bigger hit.
For H2H leagues, pitchers who go deep into video games are extra beneficial and RP who throw a number of innings are extra beneficial, whereas catcher-value is extra playing-time dependent. Transfer up any C who’s going to play much less catcher however will DH or play 1B and keep within the lineup for 140+ video games.
For five×5, you will get a way of who I like, however I wouldn’t rely too closely on theses. It’s only a totally different recreation. There are different customary fantasy rankings on this web site and you should use these for five×5.
How do you deal with multi-position gamers?
I rank each participant at one spot – the spot the place I feel they’re most respected. I additionally rank 2B and SS collectively as a single rating as a result of a) so many gamers qualify at each and b) with the MI spot, I discover that neither place is meaningfully extra beneficial than the opposite. So any participant who qualifies at C is ranked at C. Any participant not ranked at C however with MI eligibility shall be ranked at MI. Then I’ll rank OF, then 3B, and at last 1B/Util.
