2024 Projection Showdown — THE BAT X vs Steamer Hitter wOBA Forecasts — A Review

In mid-February, I in contrast wOBA projections from THE BAT X and Steamer forecasting programs. I then shared every system’s “favorites”, or the hitters every was most bullish on in comparison with the opposite, and added my tackle which system I assumed would show to be nearer. Given the dimensions of every group shared within the unique submit, it’s clear that Steamer’s wOBA projections had been usually larger, because the system was extra bullish on considerably extra hitters, so hold that in thoughts. Let’s now evaluation the outcomes.

I’ll begin with THE BAT X’s wOBA favorites, so the hitters it was most bullish on in comparison with Steamer. You’ll discover that this can be a fairly brief checklist and after simply seven hitters, we’re already all the way down to only a 0.015 wOBA distinction.

So out of the checklist of THE BAT X favorites, the system proved nearer on 4 of the six, with one of many losses approaching Mike Trout, who collected simply 126 PAs. Sadly, I used to be much more embarrassing than Steamer’s efficiency right here, as I solely acquired one take right, the place I selected which projection I assumed would show nearer!

Whereas Trout’s wOBA fell to its lowest since his 2011 debut earlier than getting injured and lacking the rest of the yr, there was heaps to get enthusiastic about. His strikeout fee and SwStk% had rebounded to date, again to the place they’d been earlier than each spiking over the previous three seasons. He was hitting a ton of fly balls once more like he did in 2022, which did destroy his BABIP, but in addition put him on a giant house run tempo. And at last, he all of a sudden determined to steal bases once more, swiping six already, after he totaled that quantity from 2020-2023! He nonetheless hasn’t recorded 500 PAs (he missed by one in 2022) since 2019, so he’s an actual tough man to worth, however he gave us hope for what we’d count on subsequent yr.

Matt Chapman in the end completed in between the 2 forecasts, however a bit nearer to THE BAT X’s extra bullish mark. This was his highest wOBA since 2019, so it was a shock to see such an optimistic forecast from the system, and but, he got here near hitting it. His energy rebounded after final yr’s outage, however the actual key right here was a strikeout fee enchancment to his greatest mark since 2019, which paired with a single digit SwStk% for the primary time since then as effectively. He additionally all of a sudden swiped 15 bases, 4 greater than he had by his total profession heading into the season. I wouldn’t guess on a repeat, however he was solely caught twice, so who is aware of!

Uhhh yeah, I feel everybody who wasn’t extremely bullish on Shohei Ohtani was fallacious! Naturally, I used to be cautious right here as he recovered from elbow surgical procedure which didn’t permit him to pitch. However maybe not worrying about pitching boosted his offense. After a historic 50/50 season, I can’t wait to see how a lot he goes for in my native combined league public sale subsequent yr!

I used to be actual shocked to seek out Steamer’s pessimistic Dansby Swanson projection, which forecasted a wOBA that will have been his lowest since 2019. Certain sufficient, the system as soon as once more makes me factor generally these forecasts are utilizing crystal balls, as a result of Swanson not solely did submit his lowest mark since 2019, but it surely was even decrease than that pessimistic forecast. It was largely resulting from an influence outage, as his ISO slipped to its lowest mark since his first full season in 2017. Oddly, his HardHit% was proper consistent with previous years, as was his maxEV. His Barrel% was down barely, however not sufficient to justify the drop in wOBA. His xwOBA suggests he was a bit unfortunate this yr, but it surely truly additionally suggests he was even unluckier final yr.

Yeah, after all Aaron Decide blew his projections out of the water. I solely sided with Steamer right here simply due to how tough it’s to notch a .400+ wOBA, particularly at Decide’s age of 32. A profession greatest strikeout fee helped right here, which will not be repeated, and his second highest BABIP is unlikely to be repeated as effectively. Given his age and harm historical past, his worth is more likely to be an excessive amount of for me subsequent yr in batting common leagues.

Teoscar Hernández was the one THE BAT X favourite I sided accurately on. He absolutely rebounded off his down 2023, and getting out of T-Cellular Park as his house turf actually helped. He posted only a .276 wOBA at house in 2023, versus a .353 mark on the highway, so park components clearly performed a giant position in that downturn. This yr, he cherished Dodger Stadium, posting a .378 wOBA there, versus a .343 mark on the highway.

Observe that I eliminated a bunch of names from the unique checklist that collected fewer than 100 PAs. Over such a small pattern measurement, something can occur, so it’s foolish to check projection programs. Even this checklist consists of six gamers with fewer than 200 PAs. So I’ll primarily contact on the fantasy related and the names I provided my tackle.

Total, Steamer solely proved nearer on seven of the 19 names right here. It may need rather a lot to do with the truth that in combination, Steamer’s projected wOBA was larger than THE BAT X, and the league simply posted its second lowest wOBA going again to 2015. My takes carried out higher, having been right on 4 of six calls right here.

Let’s speak Wyatt Langford first. The sport’s second greatest prospect shot by the minors, having recorded simply 26 Triple-A PAs and 54 Double-A PAs earlier than opening the season because the Rangers’ beginning DH/left fielder. Whereas I acknowledged the improbable expertise he had proven over a wide range of small and tiny pattern sizes within the minors, I robotically went with the pessimistic forecast right here solely because of the inexperience. Whereas he did outperform his bearish THE BAT X forecast, he was nonetheless a lot nearer to that mark and sure a disappointment to the bulk. I feel the largest shock was the shortage of energy. With 35/70 Sport and 70/70 Uncooked Energy grades, the scouting actually urged he wasn’t able to showcase his energy in-game. However nonetheless, he confirmed a variety of it within the decrease minors. He additionally posted an above common HardHit%, sturdy maxEV, and respectable Barrel%. However the balls merely didn’t fly out of the yard or go for as many additional bases as you would possibly count on. I like the inspiration right here and see considerably extra energy subsequent season.

Triston Casas missed a big chunk of the season resulting from harm, ending the yr with simply 243 PAs. I sided with the extra optimistic Steamer right here, as after a .367 wOBA throughout his first full season in 2023, I didn’t perceive how THE BAT X was so pessimistic on his follow-up. Certain sufficient, THE BAT X nearly nailed it, but it surely was primarily resulting from a spike in strikeout fee, as each his BABIP and ISO had been fairly darn near final yr. In fact, issues may have gone very otherwise had he been wholesome most or all the season.

Gee golly, if you happen to speculated on Mark Vientos due to Steamer’s extra bullish forecast, you’re most likely thrilled! Although he wasn’t a daily all yr, he nonetheless managed to outperform all expectations and knock 27 homers. His ISO surged and now matches his Statcast metrics, whereas his BABIP spiked, pushing up his batting common to respectable territory. His xwOBA suggests he overperformed, but it surely’s totally on the BABIP and batting common entrance. I wouldn’t guess on one other 26.5% HR/FB fee, however he must be a lock for one more 20%+ mark.

I assumed THE BAT X’s Jeff McNeil projection was a bit too pessimistic, although I sided with it. And but, it in the end proved not bearish sufficient! A profession worst strikeout fee and BABIP is a nasty combo for a man with restricted energy.

Instantly Steven Kwan has energy?! Okay, so it’s nonetheless beneath common, however was rather a lot much less so this season. His HR/FB fee greater than doubled and his ISO spiked, whereas each his HardHit% and Barrel% elevated. All of those metrics are nonetheless effectively beneath common, however a pleasant step ahead for Kwan. Mix this together with his usually insane contact expertise and low strikeout fee, and you bought your self a profession yr. That his steals slipped means he may not have even been as beneficial in fantasy leagues, however not less than this season ensures he stays the crew’s leadoff hitter for years to come back. That mentioned, he’s not the sort I prefer to draft as he’s nonetheless closely reliant on his batting common and phone expertise with out actually standing out in any counting stat talent.

Candy, it feels good to get Isaac Paredes proper, siding with the extra pessimistic THE BAT X right here, as I used to be actually bearish right here given his xwOBA overperformance. I get that his energy has been pushed by an excessive pulled fly ball tendency, however that appeared dangerous given how weak his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% all had been. Certain sufficient, his energy plummeted this yr, although his pulled fly ball fee was proper consistent with his final two seasons. Each his stroll and strikeout charges remained sturdy, although, however a ton of fly balls, mixed with a excessive fee of pop-ups, crushed his BABIP once more. It implies that except these pulled flies are going for house runs, he’s nugatory in shallow combined leagues. In fact, he’s nonetheless younger sufficient to easily enhance his energy and increase these Statcast metrics, which may give him 20% HR/FB fee upside if he’s additionally persevering with to tug his flies.