The 2023 Atlanta Braves have been traditionally good as a group on the plate and one of many largest causes behind that success was Matt Olson delivering a profession yr along with his bat. As such, the strain was on for Olson to ship a worthy encore efficiency and whereas he had a high quality season in your common huge league first baseman, it was a giant step within the improper course when it got here to reaching the requirements that Olson had set for himself thus far.
How Acquired
The Braves traded for Matt Olson in a a deal that primarily signaled the tip of Freddie Freeman’s time in Atlanta. Oakland bought Ryan Cusick, Joey Estes, Shea Langeliers and Cristian Pache in change for the primary baseman who was coming into his age-28 season and coming off of a 5.0 fWAR season for the A’s in 2021. Nearly instantly after the commerce was made, the Braves inked Olson to an 8-year, $168 million contract extension with a membership choice for one more season value $20 million.
What have been the expectations?
The expectations for Matt Olson have been sky excessive following an unbelievable 2023 season. Olson recorded career-highs throughout the board — He completed along with his finest full-season marks in batting common, on-base proportion, slugging proportion, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+ and fWAR. Whereas Olson’s protection might have taken a step again when it comes to OAA, it was nonetheless onerous to search out a lot of something improper along with his total physique of labor in 2023. The clear and apparent hope was that Olson would proceed to place up unbelievable numbers alongside his star-studded teammates in Atlanta’s infield.
2024 Outcomes
The rocket ship that Matt Olson was flying in in 2023 got here crashing again all the way down to Earth in 2024. Now granted, hitting .247/.333/.457 with a .339 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ and 29 house runs isn’t the worst factor on the earth and he nonetheless completed among the many top-10 first baseman in baseball when it got here to certified first basemen. With that being mentioned, there was a transparent drop-off in efficiency for Olson as he was unable to actually maintain the unbelievable manufacturing that he delivered in 2023. You possibly can’t even level to accidents, both — Olson performed 162 video games for the third straight season and this was after he performed 156 video games throughout his last season with the A’s. Accidents and underperformance performed a serious position in hurting the Braves in 2024 and in Matt Olson’s case, it was clearly underperformance from the extent that he had reached in 2023.
What went proper?
For what it’s value, Olson definitely ended the season on a excessive observe. September was his finest month of the yr, which is when he hit .319/.438/.516 with a .411 wOBA, 165 wRC+ and 4 house runs over 112 plate appearances. This was after he completed August with a .264/.339.573 slash line with .379 wOBA, 144 wRC+ and eight dingers over 124 plate appearances in August. Equally to how Austin Riley was clearly heating up earlier than a wayward fastball ended his season, Matt Olson additionally took over half the season to determine issues out earlier than he began cooking like he used to in 2023.
That is what Olson was getting as much as in late-August:
Additionally, Olson’s protection returned to the lofty requirements that he had set for himself throughout his time in Oakland. He completed with a profession excessive in DRS (13) and in addition his OAA bounced again from -4 in 2023 to 4 in 2024. His work with the bat might have been a bit inconsistent however his glove work was proper the place it wanted to be.
What went improper?
Matt Olson’s energy numbers cratered in 2024 when in comparison with what he did in 2023. I don’t assume anyone was anticipating him to hit one other 54 dingers in 2024 however on the identical time, I don’t assume anyone anticipated that house run quantity to drop all the best way to 29, both. Additionally, his Remoted Energy went down over 100 factors — from .321 in 2023 to simply .210 in 2024. That Remoted Energy quantity was the bottom that Olson had produced since 2018, which is when he completed with .207 and one other 29 house runs again then.
So what was the deal, right here? Nicely, in accordance with Baseball Savant, Matt Olson noticed 1,786 fastballs in 2023 and hit .316 in opposition to these heaters with an xBA of .292, a slugging proportion of .630 and an xSLG of .578. In 2024, Olson noticed 1,777 fastballs and he hit .262 with a .268 xBA in opposition to them, additionally including .499 slugging with a a .496 xSLG as nicely. His numbers in opposition to offspeed pitches took a giant drop as nicely — In 2023, he noticed 460 pitches termed as “offspeed” by Baseball Savant and he hit .277 in opposition to them with an xBA of .236, a slugging proportion of .617 and an xSLG of .497. In 2024, he got here again all the way down to Earth on this regard as nicely and hit .235 with a .249 xBA and slugged .485 with a .435 xSLG. He additionally hit 17 house runs off of breaking balls in 2023 however solely hit 5 off of breaking pitches in 2024.
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Merely put, it was only a down yr throughout the board when it got here to Matt Olson’s work on the plate. Possibly that’ll change sooner or later — I certain hope it does!
2025 Outlook
In that vein, the Braves don’t have any alternative however to hope that what they noticed on the plate for the overwhelming majority of the season from Matt Olson was a blip and that the model that they noticed in 2023 and within the tail finish of 2024 is the actual model. Olson will probably be coming into his age-31 season in 2025 so there’s a query of whether or not or not we’ve already seen one of the best of what Olson has to supply. Nonetheless, Olson remains to be a high-tier first baseman in all of baseball and even a really slight enchancment for Olson in 2025 would proceed to make {that a} true assertion.
